Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

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Month: August 2019

The B word (s)

In my previous job, I had a Swedish Italian CEO, with a Dutch second in command and a management board that was almost entirely French. Suffice to say that writing anything about Brexit was not encouraged. In fact, that hasn’t Read more…


Australian Financial Review

my article on US Shadow Banks in the AFR last month. Apologies for the firewall. Bottom line is that the Fed have a much bigger Shadow Banking Problem to deal with than even the Chinese do. https://www.afr.com/markets/debt-markets/it-s-time-to-crack-down-on-us-shadow-banks-20190804-p52dnf


Private Equity for the general public….hmm

The suggestion that the US SEC is considering easing restrictions on retail investors holding Private Equity raises some interesting questions. The proposal in the FT this morning that they could invest via a closed end Fund of Funds makes a Read more…


UBS goes Bearish Equities…too early to be contrarian

This morning it was reported that UBS, the largest Wealth Manager in the world had turned bearish on stocks, trimming its core equity position to underweight. I would agree. As far as the US is concerned it has been flirting Read more…


The Fed is being asked to keep the punchbowl topped up.

Once again the market is focussed on a small move in short term interest rates by the US Federal Reserve and once again the narrative is all about how the US economy ‘needs’ this. The reality is that it doesn’t Read more…


Market Thinking

J.M Keynes famously noted that “The market can remain irrational much longer than I can remain solvent” and the notion of bubbles and ‘irrational exuberance’ is built in to much observation and commentary on markets, leading to embedded positions of Read more…