Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

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Month: September 2019

Market Thinking, September 2019

The Fed temporally lost control of overnight rates, Ford Motor was cut to junk and the IPO money tree looks very sick. US interest rates are no longer about the economy, the Fed needs to tackle the US Shadow Banking Read more…


(Really) Won’t Work

A few days away meant a bit slow in the update on Won’t Work, but news that Adam Neuman has stepped down as CEO yesterday and that he had extracted over $700m in share sales and loans before the (now Read more…


Don’t Fear the Repo?

The Fed had to intervene in the Repo markets last week for the first time in a decade, causing half the market to wonder why this happened and the other half to wonder what the Repo Market actually was. Essentially Read more…


What are Bonds for?

The Fed cut rates again this week as expected, moving policy making even further away from economic models – as previously noted, the so called Taylor Rule that formalises all the high frequency data the bond economists obsess over would Read more…


Empty beds

Hearing that something between 60 and 70% of Hong Kong hospitality staff are currently on unpaid leave and yet when trying to take advantage of low occupancy by booking a stay-cation in one of the tourist hotels on Kowloon side, Read more…


Won’tWork

Earlier this year I speculated whether the Uber floatation would be the proverbial straw that broke the camel’s back for the overburdened Private Equity/VC exit strategy. That turned out not to be the case, albeit the stock is down 25% Read more…


Suicide Drones

The attack on Saudi oil facilities by ‘suicide drones’ at the weekend is having the predictable effect on oil prices and President Trump has authorised some release from the Strategic Oil Reserves, an important but not unprecedented move. (See here Read more…


Made in EU 2025?

As the US seems to be turning into late 1980s Japan, an Enterprise Owned State (EOS) becoming more isolationist as asset prices and the currency soar – and we all know how that ends – it strikes me that there Read more…


State Owned Enterprise, or Enterprise Owned State?

For some, the new Cold War between China and the US is about a clash of ideologies, China replacing the Soviet Union as the ideological ‘other’, its failings to be highlighted and indeed exaggerated in order to demonstrate the virtues Read more…


Not the spark but the fuel

A friend trapped in their hotel during last weekend’s violent protests noted that while the shop window of Harry Winston’s was smashed, nobody touched the diamonds. In the same way that the protesters clear up after themselves, these are protests, Read more…