Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

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Month: November 2019

Tesla Pickup should be called the Model Why?

OK, we have seen the new Tesla pickup truck and in my view it is awful. The secret of Tesla’s initial success (in my humble opinion) was that the Model S was a very good looking car, taking some of Read more…


Watch the Peg…to the SDR?

The elections in Hong Kong at the weekend produced a huge swing to the Pro-democracy parties. All eyes therefore will now be on the Hong Kong Legislative Elections next September. Currently only half of the 70 person council are voted Read more…


I see what you did there..

The sudden escalation of violence in Hong Kong and the dramatic and telegenic use of incendiary devices ensured that Hong Kong dominated the global 24/7 news cycle over the last two weeks, culminating in an Alamo style standoff at one Read more…


Diamonds and Pearls

A little over a hundred years ago, some of the richest men in the world were the railway Tycoons who had helped open up America. They were the equivalent of the the internet Tycoons of today and they largely lived Read more…


Why good news on Trade could be bad news for US Investment Grade Bonds (and Taiwan)

The search for yield is not a new phenomenon, even if it has intensified under QE. For years, the big Japanese Life companies in particular were prone to allocating to strategies that offered high nominal yields in foreign currencies, before Read more…


The Petrus Indicator (and others)

After the GFC I was on an investment panel and we were asked what Central Banks should look out for as an early warning of another bubble before it bursts. I suggested slightly tongue in cheek that they employ the Read more…


Singles Day – the 11th 11/11

Monday was singles day for Alibaba and once again it’s Gross Merchandise Value, (GMV) broke new records, hitting just over Rmb 268bn , or $38.3bn. That’s a 26% increase on last year, which in turn had been a 27% increase Read more…


Market Thinking October 2019

The end of October is effectively year end for many funds and a lot of book squaring is taking place. Sterling has rallied, the dollar index has topped out and the strong outperformance of momentum stocks over value in the Read more…