Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

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Month: March 2020

The consensus being challenged..

Having highlighted the role of Professor Neil Ferguson and the team of catastrophists at Imperial College in the 2001 Foot and Mouth Disease response (Oxford versus Imperial) it was interesting to see the article in the Daily Telegraph on Saturday Read more…


Oxford or Imperial?

While (still) not being an expert on viruses, we note the difference of opinion between several people that are. In one corner we have the catastrophists from Imperial College London (who as noted in a previous post were the people Read more…


Lessons from FMD 2001

When we see an unexpected event in markets, there is a tendency to quickly check ‘What Happened Last Time?’ (WHLT). In fact, WHLT is the basis for the majority of financial and other models generally, although we give it fancier Read more…


The Venkman Protocol

“But of I’m right and we can stop this thing…Lenny, you will have saved the lives of millions of registered votes” Dr Peter Venkman, to Mayor Lenny, Ghostbusters 1984 Like more than 99% of the people commenting on the Covid Read more…


Risk Parity and the Gig Economy both under threat

There is nothing so bad that politics can’t make it worse Thomas Sowell When the virus scare began we noted that there would be two important components to calling the bottom from a market perspective; first that the rate of Read more…


Not as bad as it seems…

As we see another hit to Equities today, I note comments already arriving saying the FTSE100 is now below where it was 20 years ago. However, this (like many things) is not as bad, or indeed what, it might at Read more…


It’s always about cash flow

The immediate impact of the emergency cut in rates by the Band of England has been to cap sterling’s strength against the $ and compound its recent weakness against the Euro in a race to the bottom on relative cash Read more…


Investors choose to ‘Self Isolate’

The markets are largely behaving like q4 2018, but economically the virus is causing a working capital crisis more like 2008. The latest market ‘crash’ has come in Oil, with Brent crude dropping 10% on Friday and the West Texas Read more…


Buying the dips to selling the rallies?

In the last post (Market Thinking February) we noted how the traders were anticipating an interest rate cut, which duly arrived to much ‘surprise’, but that we were nervous about a shift in sentiment by long term investors who would Read more…


Market Thinking February 2020

The fundamentals of Corona Virus matter less in the short term than the reality of the official response to it. Equally the presumed impact on earnings is less important than the technical selling, profit taking and straight out panic selling Read more…