Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

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Month: April 2020

Cytokine Storms

The market is dealing with two major uncertainties – the actual nature of the Covid-19 virus and the impact that it will have on the global economy, or more specifically the impact that the efforts made to deal with the Read more…


Markets are in the ‘Did I miss it’? phase, wondering if the rally from the end March lows will now be followed by a long period of consolidation or a return to previous lows. As such many are searching for Read more…


Ask an expert

There are two important aphorisms to remember when consulting ‘experts’ ; the first is Warren Buffet’s comment that “You should never ask a barber if you need a haircut” , or in a similar vein, ask a General if you Read more…


Have we just cancelled the discount rate?

Wednesday Wanderer’s Wonderings* After this week’s fun and games in the Oil derivatives markets, we should not lose sight of the underlying pressures in the oil patch. While the oil price isn’t really minus $37 unless you are trying to Read more…


Sell Mortimer! Sell!

Some extreme fun and games in the Oil markets overnight as CL1, the generic first contract for WTI crude went below zero, hitting minus $42 at one point as the May contract expired. By contrast, as the chart shows, the Read more…


Spring, but not sprung

Most of Europe is keeping its borders closed, while Hong Kong has basically banned visitors and any returning residents are effectively being placed under very close house arrest for a fortnight on returning. Meanwhile, in the UK, the aptly named Read more…


Back to Black…rock, stone

As it stands, it looks like the markets may indeed have bottomed around the time of the March options expiry – as discussed in earlier posts. This, as we noted at the time, is not without precedent; the March futures Read more…


We are in a real life Stamford Prison Experiment

One of the most famous chapters in psychology involves what is  known as the Stamford Prison experiment, conducted by a Stamford Psychology Professor Zimbardo back in in 1971. In the experiment a group of volunteers were randomly split into two Read more…


“Zoom,Zoom, Zoom…we’re going to the moon *”

* Traditional Nursery Rhyme “Here’s an idea, let’s think of a company that will do well in the world of social distancing”. “Right, got it, how about Zoom, the online conference app?” “Great, what are its sales?” “Good, they have Read more…


Did the UK just nationalise the Banks?

Reading that the UK regulators had not only told the banks not to pay dividends, but also, apparently, not to buy back shares or pay cash bonuses to senior staff made us wonder if this was actually a poor taste Read more…