Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

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Month: May 2020

The Reason for the New Cold War is QE

Instead of trying to block China, why not offer better products? In last week’s WWW, we suggested thinking about the possible positive outcomes that could arise from this New Cold War between the US and China; that instead of being Read more…


Enterprise Value is more important than Market Cap

A recent article claimed that Zoom was worth more than the whole of the US airline sector. This is not of course true, but it is interesting for other reasons, not least because we have recently discussed both areas. Firstly, Read more…


The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

The Good news is that Covid-19 is over, for now at least, rates are falling everywhere and excess death measurements reveal that in most countries 2020 has been ‘nothing unusual’ We know that while there have undoubtedly been many failings, Read more…


China tells Pompeo, “I know what you did last Summer”

Today’s announcements from China need to be seen in the context of the last two years of steadily intensifying interference in Chinese affairs by the US as part of the new Cold War. At the 13th National People’s Congress we Read more…


Made in US 2025

When considering risk, it is always very easy to become gloomy and negative, which is why some of the most perspicacious advisors nevertheless fulfil the old maxim of “If you’re so clever why aren’t you rich?” They see risk and Read more…


In reply to the FT

The FT is required reading, not on the basis it has great wisdom, rather that it embodies the opinion of “The Powers That Be (TPTB). Thus when it runs a story like the following, from Stephen Moore, apparently an advisor Read more…


Let’s just copy the other guy

The economics of shutdown will undoubtedly go into the history books, but so will the psychology and the politics, as well as the psychology of the politics. Right now, the logical gymnastics being performed to not only justify previous policies Read more…


Cold Warriors’ risk to investors

While the short term uncertainties around not only the virus itself but also the assorted governments’ response to it remain the same, the medium term risk profile for markets continues to shift away from potential instability of illiquid markets towards Read more…


It would help if they understood markets

Captain Mainwearing: Private Pike, kindly report back on the situation regarding gas masks for the platoon. Pike: I couldn’t get any Mr Mainwearing Captain Mainwearing. Whyever not boy? I gave you a chit for 17 shillings and told you to Read more…


Things that won’t be coming back…

– for a while at least Economists referring to the sharp inventory correction and brief downturn in economic activity following the Global Financial Crisis in 2008/9 as “The Great Recession”. Perspective, people as they say in the US. Pointless obsession Read more…