Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

Browsing:

Month: July 2020

Warden Hodges is running the narrative

In a previous post back in May, we highlighted how the UK response to Covid resembled nothing so much as an episode of Dads Army: with the scientists at Imperial College playing the role of Private Frazer (“We’re all doomed”), Read more…


Covid and the 5 Monkeys Experiment

The Five Monkeys experiment is a classic thought experiment with implications for human behaviour. The following pictogram sums it up. Essentially this is where we appear to be right now with Covid and social distancing. As Jonathan Sumption pointed out Read more…


Policy Inflicted Problems

Equity markets outside of US tech are struggling to maintain any momentum as the twin policies of  economic self harm from stop-start lockdown and Election fueled Cold War rhetoric against China combine to further undermine any sort of business and Read more…


Watching the $

As we head into an atypical summer, some issues like Italian debt have been postponed (again), while others, such as regulation of hedge funds and asset managers are starting to re-emerge – as are some longer terms trends like a Read more…


A New Model Portfolio – Global Multi Thematic

The existing Global Equity Factor and Global Bond Portfolios allow asset allocation at the subgroup level between different ‘styles’ and also with cash, all based on a risk rather than a return basis.These can, and we believe should, be used Read more…


The dangerous vaccine narrative

Markets start the week with some profit taking from the hot markets in China spilling over into a generally weaker Europe disappointed by lack of co-ordinated action on any form of fiscal stimulus ‘rescue package’. The US meanwhile is navigating Read more…


Travelling

Posting has been light this week due to travelling back to Europe and subsequent jet lag. A few observations however. No sooner had we posted on the template that Hong Kong provided for the west, both good and bad, than Read more…


Back to 2015?

There were shades of 2015 in the Chinese markets this week as margin financing came roaring back in for China’s re-boot of the ‘can’t lose’ mentality recently adopted by the RobinHood day traders in the US – and still frankly Read more…


Logical Fallacies, Behavioural Finance and Covid-19

Our whole approach to Market-Thinking is based around the psychological behaviour of markets and trying to make sense and anticipate the behaviours of our three key ‘tribes’ – traders, asset allocators and long term investors. Much of the analysis we Read more…


Is this the most powerful man in America right now?

We are grateful to Dilbert creator Scott Adams for this insight. Following his announcement that he intends to run for President, the US media are in something of a panic over Kanye West. According to the polls, Joe Biden is Read more…