making sense of the narrative
July 30, 2020
In a previous post back in May, we highlighted how the UK response to Covid resembled nothing so much as an episode of Dads Army: with the scientists at Imperial College playing the role of Private Frazer (“We’re all doomed”), Read more…
July 28, 2020
The Five Monkeys experiment is a classic thought experiment with implications for human behaviour. The following pictogram sums it up. Essentially this is where we appear to be right now with Covid and social distancing. As Jonathan Sumption pointed out Read more…
July 27, 2020
Equity markets outside of US tech are struggling to maintain any momentum as the twin policies of economic self harm from stop-start lockdown and Election fueled Cold War rhetoric against China combine to further undermine any sort of business and Read more…
July 24, 2020
As we head into an atypical summer, some issues like Italian debt have been postponed (again), while others, such as regulation of hedge funds and asset managers are starting to re-emerge – as are some longer terms trends like a Read more…
July 22, 2020
The existing Global Equity Factor and Global Bond Portfolios allow asset allocation at the subgroup level between different ‘styles’ and also with cash, all based on a risk rather than a return basis.These can, and we believe should, be used Read more…
July 20, 2020
Markets start the week with some profit taking from the hot markets in China spilling over into a generally weaker Europe disappointed by lack of co-ordinated action on any form of fiscal stimulus ‘rescue package’. The US meanwhile is navigating Read more…
July 17, 2020
Posting has been light this week due to travelling back to Europe and subsequent jet lag. A few observations however. No sooner had we posted on the template that Hong Kong provided for the west, both good and bad, than Read more…
July 13, 2020
There were shades of 2015 in the Chinese markets this week as margin financing came roaring back in for China’s re-boot of the ‘can’t lose’ mentality recently adopted by the RobinHood day traders in the US – and still frankly Read more…
July 8, 2020
Our whole approach to Market-Thinking is based around the psychological behaviour of markets and trying to make sense and anticipate the behaviours of our three key ‘tribes’ – traders, asset allocators and long term investors. Much of the analysis we Read more…
July 7, 2020
We are grateful to Dilbert creator Scott Adams for this insight. Following his announcement that he intends to run for President, the US media are in something of a panic over Kanye West. According to the polls, Joe Biden is Read more…