Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

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Month: August 2020

The UK economy isn’t (quite) as bad as you think

One of the big problems in this information age is the use of heuristics, or short cuts (a point made very eloquently by Daniel Kahneman in Thinking Fast and Slow) which can lead us to make decisions on what is Read more…


US Politics

The US Election is now a little over 2 months away and as traders and investors slowly return home from their holidays (or with undue haste if they are trying to get back to the UK) it will increasingly be Read more…


High Viz land

In a post early in the Covid saga, we drew attention to the potential parallels with the Stamford Prison experiment, a true story of a psychological experiment that went badly wrong. Every day the parallels get stronger as the equivalent Read more…


Friday Market Thinking

The S&P continues to grind higher, while the Shanghai Composite remains supported on its short term indicators, up 20% over the last three months. The offshore Yuan (CNY) is at its lowest (strongest) level against the US$ since March, while Read more…


Will their currency become our problem again?

August is normally the start of the quiet period in western markets with many investment managers working from home for a few weeks while the families enjoy a break from school. This year of course that is the norm rather Read more…


Market Thinking August

In Market Thinking for July, we noted that, after one of the best ever quarterly performances for US equities, we thought that the choppy trading at the end of June signaled a changing of ownership from leveraged speculative traders to Read more…


Holiday Reading

Took an old favourite off the shelves…