Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

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Month: October 2020

Narrative Shift

To a man with a hammer, everything looks like a nail Old Soviet expression If you are a Democrat supporting media organisation (ie almost all of them) then the only story that counts is Covid. This is front and centre Read more…


One world two systems

Since the Global Financial Crisis, the west has slowly woken up to the fact that China does not intend to play entirely by their rules. It has adapted its centralised approach to allow for market prices to send signals about Read more…


Are short term markets giving us a glimpse of longer term trends?

Market Thinking looks for how the behaviour of short term traders can spill over into the actions of medium term asset allocators and ultimately long term investors. Right now, we are watching the behaviour of the Currency and Commodity markets Read more…


Power Plays

We talk of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and in doing so note that economic and political power has always coincided with the ability to gain access to the essential raw materials and components of the time – coal in the Read more…


Is the noise obscuring the signal?

Nate Silver, the political pundit wrote a bestselling book in the wake of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis called the Signal and the Noise, with the subtitle ‘Why so many predictions fail, and some don’t”. The book made two important Read more…


ESG – be careful what you wish for

As we noted in Wednesday Wanderer’s Wonderings, one of the biggest differences for markets between a Biden or Trump Presidency is likely to be that the former will embrace the concept of a Green New Deal and by extension ESG Read more…


Build Back Better..But for Whom?

Many observers will have spotted the sudden (and repeated) use of the expression “Build back better” in both the UK and the US. We see these moments as the time to learn and to improve on the world that went Read more…


Has the WHO just given politicians a way out?

The heavy politicisation of Covid in the US Elections is a key reason why we have our fingers crossed that things will calm down after November 3rd, whoever wins. It is clear that the Democrats see it as their best Read more…


Is the CNY telling us something important?

While everything that is not Covid or Trump (or both) is getting pushed to the side at the moment, there are actually some really interesting things going on elsewhere that deserve our attention. In particular one trend that seems to Read more…


Friday Market Thinking

One Regime, Two Parties The Vice Presidential Debate this week was an overwhelming victory for Kamala Harris. Or Mike Pence. It rather depended on which side you asked. For the small number of pro Trump media outlets, Harris was exposed Read more…