Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

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Month: November 2020

Is RCEP a recipe for a Reset?

The narrative over the last six months was seemingly almost entirely around the twin themes of Covid and the US Election and it looks like November will come in as a really strong month in Global Equities, principally because the Read more…


Always Covid, Never Christmas

The latest set of regulations from the UK bring to mind the line from CS Lewis about Narnia, where it was “Always Winter but never Christmas”. C.S. Lewis was writing in a time of growing authoritarianism and at some point Read more…


Living in a Kakistocracy

Kakistocracy * noun[ C or U ]UK  /ˌkæk.ɪˈstɒk.rə.si/ US  /ˌkæk.ɪˈstɑː.krə.si/ a government that is ruled by the least suitable, able, or experienced people in a state or country: *Cambridge English Dictionary. From the Greek kakistos meaning worst. Applying logic to Read more…


The 5 C’s. A Great (Portfolio) Reset?

Global Equities have finally clawed back their total returns relative to Global Bonds and while there is no sign of the theoretical risk free rate approaching the true cost of capital anytime soon, investors accepting nominal inflation are looking at Read more…


Can the Media live without ‘The Donald’?

The US Media are struggling a bit with the significant reduction in Trump content in recent days. As noted back in 2016, his carefully curated character of “The Donald” would send, often outrageous, tweets at all hours of the day Read more…


Due Diligence…

One lesson of proper risk management is that when something with a meaningful short term downside and a non zero probability of happening is dismissed out of hand, we should be wary. Such is the case right now with risk Read more…


Risk Management and Magical Thinking

“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” Mark Twain A key part of dealing with the narrative driven world that we live in is recognising that Read more…


Will Pfizer’s new Vaccine be a blue pill?

Morpheus: Unfortunately, no one can be told what the Matrix is. You have to see it for yourself. This is your last chance. After this, there is no turning back.(In his left hand, Morpheus shows a blue pill.)Morpheus: You take the blue Read more…


November Market Thinking

The US Election looks to have gone to Biden, even though it also looks like it is going to the courts. In some ways, what is more important is that the failure of the widely predicted ‘Blue Wave’ to appear Read more…


Cash lies dorm-ANT

There are many Bankers having a rant this morning about the reluctant debutant that is ANT financial. As the world’s largest IPO, it was highly significant and meant to provide a stimulant of hundreds of millions in fees for the Read more…