Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

Browsing:

Month: January 2021

VR meets VaR

As the laptop-wielding video gamers turned day traders take their battle to the Hedge Fund Masters of the Universe, they need to recognise that the regulators are going to come in soon. Many appear to have got their education on Read more…


A New Role for the House of Lords

Summary: As part one of our Build Britain Back Better series, we look today at the twin issues of Reform of the House of Lords and decentralising Government in the UK, especially England. The proposal is this; the existing role Read more…


Cognitive Dissonance

As US and other equity markets continue to hit new highs, we see increasing examples of Cognitive Dissonance emerging, notably in the response to the US Election. Historically this can lead to a sudden switch in the ‘narrative’ which can Read more…


A switch to half full?

Is the Glass half empty or half full? It depends on whether you are pouring, or drinking. Bill Cosby The biggest uncertainty in markets remains Covid Policy (as opposed to the virus itself) since it defines the underlying economic situation. Read more…


Non Stationarity, False Certainty and China

In an increasingly uncertain world, people crave reassurance. Unfortunately those appearing to offer certainty and ‘science’ are in many cases fooling themselves along with their customers. Covid has revealed many problems with the systems that we use, not least the Read more…


Model Portfolios 2020

Overview – A good year for the Roses The rollercoaster performance of markets was a baptism of fire for the Model Portfolios we were actively running over the last year and a strong challenge to the concept of Dynamic Asset Read more…


Crackdown

This post was originally set to go out on Friday, but we thought it worth digesting the narrative being created over the weekend after the ‘storming’ of the Capitol by Trump supporters. What is clear from the hyperbolic – and Read more…


A Peg Protection Parallel to Prevent further Pan(dem)ic

One of the (few) advantages of getting older is the benefit of experience, if not always wisdom. As such we sometimes spot patterns that are not necessarily picked up by historical graphs or datasets, based on ‘lived experience’. Thus in Read more…


People versus Systems

There is an old (and valuable) piece of advice that says never send an angry email at night and many is the time that a ‘rant’ about something has sat on the ‘draft’ pages of wordpress until the following morning, Read more…