Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

Browsing:

Month: March 2021

Arch – Egos? We like to look for nominative determinism where we can find it, so to see that the over-leveraged US Hedge Fund that was forced to aggressively de-leverage on Friday was called ArchEgos was too good to miss. Read more…


A Sustainable Bubble?

We have noted on many occasions the seemingly unstoppable trend towards a ‘green’ takeover of the western economy consistent with a centralisation of the allocation of capital according to the UN sustainability agenda. This risks high volatility and stock specific Read more…


Awkward Thought Experiments

We live in a world in which we are increasingly ‘given the opinions we are supposed to hold’. One antidote to this is to apply the logic of received opinion number one to situation number two. This results in some Read more…


Another Spring, still not sprung

Almost a year ago when we wrote Spring but not sprung we were worried that the government was too risk averse, but never thought we would still be in lockdown as a second spring arrives with most of the West Read more…


Buying which dip?

We like to think of the market moving in a variety of ‘herds’, with the opportunities for the biggest herd, the long term investor, being presented by the behaviours of the other two, the Asset Allocators and the short term Read more…


Changing Narratives..

Market Thinking is subtitled ‘making sense of the Narrative’ because markets are as much about the stories we tell ourselves as any of the so called fundamentals. Indeed, the fundamentals we focus on are always the ones that fit the Read more…


Market Thinking March

Rotating out of long Duration Assets March is a key month for most asset allocators, as the options expiry on the third Friday of the month is one of the first major opportunities to ‘reposition’ portfolios by putting on new Read more…


Fools and their Money

With all the excitement of Covid, US Elections, Robinhood traders and now Bond Markets, it’s been easy to forget our friends over at SoftBank, the company that thinks it’s a bank, or a hedge fund or a Venture Capitalist. Or Read more…


The Great Bond Reset?

The post below is the outline text sent for an article in the Australian Financial Review (AFR) looking at the triple threat faced by bond markets. As our recent posts have suggested, we see Bonds as the biggest short and Read more…