Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

Browsing:

Month: May 2021

The inflationary consequences of Zero..

Hot on the heels of our new Thematic slot at CitiWire, we were asked to do one of our semi regular pieces this weekend for the highly regarded Australian publication AFR. Below we reproduce the draft sent in as the Read more…


THG life..

After, yet another, glossy puff piece in the Times about ‘Buff Billionaire’ Matt Moulding of THG, I posted a comment suggesting that they should consider tagging it as Advertorial. I got a few likes and replies before the comment was Read more…


Your Currency, Our Problem

It looks like the ‘don’t trust the dollar’ crowd have switched from Crypto to Gold, which is going up as the others go down., but there are other forces at play. Crypto is a challenge to both monetary and fiscal Read more…


Bread and Circuses

There is a meaningful risk emerging that the quiescence of the public so far in response to lockdown is going to erupt into civil unrest over the summer as the bread and circuses employed so far are no longer enough Read more…


Long Short Duration and Short Long Duration

Equity Markets recovered at the end of last week in what looked like a classic ‘buy the dips’ bounce as medium and long term investors moved in to take advantage of some deleveraging and forced selling by the short term Read more…


No Profit, No Bid

The retreat of leveraged retail from Equity markets is leaving a lot of ‘concept stocks’ friendless, (no profit, no bid as Bob Marley almost said) but this looks to us more like 1987 than 2000, despite the noise and nonsense Read more…


Simple Demand and Supply

Last Friday’s Non Farm Payrolls were seen by markets as ‘weak’ and supportive of a ‘no inflation scenario’ leading to a sell off in the US$. However, in our view, this is 180 degrees the wrong way around. The lack Read more…


Drilling Down

If we only look at the top-down numbers for Asset Classes we risk missing the underlying stories and information that is ‘out there’. Thus while April saw something of ‘A reversal of the reversal, as we discussed in the May Read more…


One world, two ‘realities’

The growth of AI in both financial markets and society as a whole is skewing our behaviour towards ‘left brain’ characteristics of transactions, data and goal seeking and away from right brain characteristics of analysis, interpretation and context. Computers need Read more…


Market Thinking May

A Pause that Refreshes… Market movements in April might best be described as an apparent ‘reversal of the reversal’ as many of the winners of the inflation/reflation trade that began in October appeared to sell off while the ‘losers’ rallied. Read more…