Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

Browsing:

Month: September 2021

Gradually, then Suddenly

A Short note today – just moving into a new office. Mainly a focus on recent developments around some of our developing themes. First is the ongoing story of Evergrande, which has gone viral, with the whole world apparently just Read more…


Avoiding Confirmation Bias

The widespread consensus in the Western Media is that EverGrande is going to crash the Chinese Economy and that the Australia/US/UK defense pact is ‘good news’. Short term traders are backing this, but we would suggest that neither of these Read more…


Mid-Autumn Winds

With China closed for the Mid Autumn Festival holiday, the noise traders are all over Evergrande Contagion as their new narrative, when in fact the bigger short term risk is the gamma positions among market makers in the US post Read more…


Big Data….available but not being used (yet).

Diary As I sit here in my ‘bijou’ residence at Hong Kong airport for my ninth day of ‘totally necessary and not at all pointless’ Quarantine, (TNANAAPQ) with nothing to do but write blogs (!), I am interrupted by a Read more…


What if the next big thing, isn’t?

There is an old line that the Stone Age didn’t end because they ran out of Stones and just as the Dot Com crash was not caused by a collapse in the share prices of typewriter companies and fax machine Read more…


Market Thinker – Digitalisation

The latest Market Thinker piece is up at CityWIre. Continuing our look at thematic investing, we consider the case for a broad portfolio based around digitaisation. The link to their site is here. https://citywireselector.com/news/the-market-thinker-devil-is-in-digitalisation-details-and-post-disruption-plays/a1554639


Creative Destruction

Coincident but Symbolic The photo is from Kunming in China, where at the end of August 15 Skyscrapers were demolished simultaneously with controlled explosions. The story is that a developer took over a site that had not been completed by Read more…


20 Years ago

Like a lot of people over a certain age, I remember exactly where I was this day 20 years ago, on the trading floor of Commerzbank Securities in London, having interrupted preparations for a delayed marketing trip to New York Read more…


Market Thinking September

The back-to-school-trade in markets is not to look at the short term forecasting uncertainties around the Delta Variant of Covid, but rather to consider the medium and longer term implications of the latest twists in the New Cold War and Read more…


Australian Financial Review

For those with a subscription, the link to the latest AFR piece is below. What you thought you knew about investing in China is wrong The reality is that under Xi Jinping, the where and how of investing in China Read more…