Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

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Month: October 2021

Bull markets and Bullet Trains..

After a weak September, Equity markets have recovered in the last few weeks as buy on the dips seems to have kicked back in (as well as some momentum chasing or buy on the rips) for a strong looking seasonal Read more…


COPs and Robber Barons

As COP26 turns into a sort of Glastonbury for ESG funds, nobody seems to have noticed that all the big energy users have already committed to ‘new nuclear’ already and thus it is the collection of Robber Barons from Finance, Read more…


AFR; Revenge of the deadly trinity of zeroes

The latest piece for AFR went up yesterday. It is behind a firewall, so here for readers is a version of the draft I sent. Essentially it is making the point that inflation has not arrived thanks to Zero Interest Read more…


Welcome to the Metaverse

A digital coin that doesn’t change in value (up or down) is the missing component that has so far prevented the online world of internet 3.0 transitioning from an entertainment space to a genuine alternative Economy. However, Central Bank Digital Read more…


Calling Elliot Carver

As the rhetoric for War in the South China Sea is ramped up almost 25 years after Bond villain Elliot Carver tried to do it to sell more newspapers, the good news is that, when looked at properly, China’s apparent Read more…


THG Life..not so good

We have felt obliged to comment in the past on the curious beast that is The Hut Group, or THG as it is known, not least because it seems to defy every aspect of corporate governance that any one caring Read more…


After a year of bad policy, the risk is that the Central Bankers say ‘hold my beer’

The dirty little secret of Monetary Policy in much of the west is that it has actually long been really a form of fiscal policy. When you have a population with large amounts of floating rate debt, changing the cost Read more…


Market Thinking October

Two sides to Every Story September turned out to be true to type, increased risk aversion in and around the triple witching mid month led to a spike in the price of put options (expressed as a higher VIX) and Read more…