Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

Browsing:

Month: March 2022

Is it time for the Bancor?

Amid all the discussions about the sanctions – and counter sanctions- against Russia, an extremely important issue is rearing its head; what is the future of the Petro-Dollar? And, more broadly, what is the future for the dollar as the Read more…


Pre-Positioning and Re-Positioning.

Much as we like to attribute moves in markets to ‘the news’, more often than not it is the more prosaic elements of portfolio rebalancing and dealer positioning that are the actual driving forces. Post the latest option expiry, this Read more…


Signs and Portents

” Beware the Ides of March”. There is no reason to feel a bit nervous about the date as President Zelensky addresses a Senate, just as Caesar did on this day in 44 BC, other than the fact that those Read more…


An Energy Reset

The realisation is slowly dawning on Europeans that not only have Zero Carbon policies pushed Europe to a dangerous dependency on unreliable renewables that need (mainly Russian) natural gas as a baseload, but that the biggest winners of this – Read more…


March Market Thinking

Regime Change Vladimir Putin’s adoption of established ‘Western’ tactics of Regime Change does not mean two wrongs make a right, not at all, but it does suggest that many other regimes will change as a result, regardless of how quickly Read more…


Model Portfolios- March

Market Thinking Model Portfolios use the principles of behavioral finance within a systematic risk management framework to deliver a dynamic asset allocation process for Absolute Return products. We do not use derivatives, seeking instead to reduce downside risk via the Read more…


Ukraine and markets

Markets gyrated heavily last week, commodities spiked, then stalled, while equities sold off and then bounced. Vix was little changed suggesting that asset allocators were already hedged and there was little follow on selling after CTAs went short. Bonds (as Read more…