Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

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Month: July 2022

Prices, Probabilities and Predictions

The rally in the 10 year bond and the selloff in Commodity prices have been taken by many pundits as ‘Predictions’ of future economic activity, i.e a collapse in demand, a recession and a reduction in the threat of inflation. Read more…


AFR Article

Below is the latest article for Australia Financial Review, making two key points. First that moves in markets may lead rather than reflect Economic forecasts and thus we need to be careful of predictions based on market moves – especially Read more…


What Cricket can teach the Tories

A wise man once said that everything made sense when viewed through either the movies of the Godfather or the rules of English Cricket. With that in mind, we would consider the opportunities now facing the UK Conservative Party as Read more…


July Market Thinking

Markets are breaking Free. Governments have been trying to fix markets for over a decade but reality is now biting. This, in fact, is the real “Great Reset’. Free Markets are not about political systems but are those that are Read more…