Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

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Month: September 2022

$ to everyone : “It’s not you. It’s me”

A new government and a crisis mini-Budget are perfect catalysts for macro traders to double down on existing large and already highly profitable strategies and to produce persuasive narratives to back it up. Thus, going into month and quarter end Read more…


Model Portfolios 60:40

Bringing together our series on Model Portfolios, we show how a balanced 60:40 Portfolio of Equities and Bonds based on our Global Bond Model Portfolio combined with either our Global Equity Factor Model Portfolio (Portfolio 1) or our Global Equity Read more…


A Tale of Two Systems

Central to Market Thinking is the notion that there are Three Tribes at work in markets – the short term leveraged traders, the medium term asset allocators and risk managers and the long term investors. Sometimes they all move in Read more…


Model Portfolios – Global Themes

In our last post on Model Portfolios*, we considered looking at Global Equities through the lens of Factors – Momentum, Min Volatility, Value, Quality and Size. This allowed us to achieve diversification, while Dynamic allocation between the factors allowed us Read more…


End of an Era

Thursday 8th September will be one of those days we all remember where we were when we heard, the day the UK lost a Monarch and the world lost a Queen. It is, quite literally, the end of an era. Read more…


Model Portfolios – Global Equity Factors

In our first post about our Model Portfolios*, on Global Bonds, we explained that we run Model Portfolios for two reasons: Firstly, to help us understand the dynamics operating within markets and second to demonstrate the power of Dynamic Allocation between components Read more…


Market Thinking September

Zero Policies and the Policies of ‘Zero’ With the long summer holidays and so many elections coming up, there is a feeling of Policy Paralysis going on, but also a recognition that this is about to change. In particular, the Read more…


His Master’s Voice

A little noticed (by most) statement came out in early July – effectively the day of Boris Johnson’s resignation – from an unusual source, a joint press release by Britain’s MI5 and the US FBI. The statement was on China Read more…