Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

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Month: October 2022

Is US tax driving Chinese stocks?

While Asian investors may have been waiting for Mid October and the end of the CCP conference for ‘something to happen’, US investors in China may have been waiting to see if there was any prospect of a bounce before Read more…


Fear of being out replaced by fear of being in (anything but $ cash)

The most crowded trade in markets at the moment is $ cash. Fear rather than greed is dominating sentiment for both retail and professional investors and, with yields approaching 4%, cash is back as an asset class once more. Of Read more…


A very British Coup

The marvellous British word ‘defenestration’ is seemingly only ever used when a politician is metaphorically thrown out of the proverbial window and as such will doubtless be all over the UK press in the next few days as Chancellor Kwasi Read more…


Time and Momentum

The 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party will be presented as a time of calm in a sea of international chaos as Xi looks to a third term and further progress to his view of socialism. Investors can expect Read more…


Danger UXB

Danger UXB was a British TV series about a company of soldiers dealing with UXBs, or Unexploded Bombs, left in London after the Blitz. Made in the late 1970s it will doubtless be familiar to BoE governor Andrew Bailey and Read more…


October Market Thinking

September exceeded even its own reputation as a terrible month for markets, with equities and bonds both down heavily, as well as commodities, and almost the only thing going up (apart from volatility) was the US$. The fact that these Read more…


LDI – Leveraged and Dangerously Illiquid?

The recent panic in the LDI market has received a lot of coverage, some of it breathless and designed to promote a short narrative, but much of it calm and authoritative – and generally pointing out the broader issues. As Read more…


Dealing with the Triple Threat(s)

UK households face the triple threat to their finances of higher energy prices, higher interest rates and higher taxes. Meanwhile, the new UK government trying to deal with this face a different triple threat of the markets, their political opponents Read more…