Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

Market Thinking March

Rotating out of long Duration Assets March is a key month for most asset allocators, as the options expiry on the third Friday of the month is one of the first major opportunities to ‘reposition’ portfolios by putting on new Read more…


Fools and their Money

With all the excitement of Covid, US Elections, Robinhood traders and now Bond Markets, it’s been easy to forget our friends over at SoftBank, the company that thinks it’s a bank, or a hedge fund or a Venture Capitalist. Or Read more…


The Great Bond Reset?

The post below is the outline text sent for an article in the Australian Financial Review (AFR) looking at the triple threat faced by bond markets. As our recent posts have suggested, we see Bonds as the biggest short and Read more…


Concentration Risk.

As discussed, the sell off in Bond Markets is also clearing out the trading funds and day traders’ stocks, as they all cut leverage. The short term traders may yet be buyers-on -dips, but we suspect that they have packed Read more…


Regime Change?

In the latest Friday Market Thinking, we concluded that the biggest medium term risk to markets was likely to be bonds, given their historic tendency to damage other asset classes as they deleverage. The risk models behind our Model Portfolios, Read more…


Themes and Memes

We like to look at markets as being driven by the behaviour of three different groups – the short term speculators, the medium term asset allocators and the longer term investors. Sometimes the three groups offset or partially offset one Read more…


“An undertaking of great advantage…”

The economist Michael Hudson has a useful expression contrasting the Economic Models of the West with those of emerging Asia as Industrial Capitalism (Asia) versus Financial Capitalism (the West), where the latter is in effect a return to the rentier Read more…


Animal Spirits

Sentiment is an important driver of short term markets and with Chinese money being an increasingly significant factor in markets generally, so an understanding of Chinese psychology and sentiment becomes genuinely relevant. Today is the start of Chinese New Year, Read more…


Investment SAGEs

Experts advising Pension Funds have become like SAGE advising the UK government. Using historic computer based models based around some simple prior relationships, they make predictions on which they base their policy advice. The trustees, like ministers, are often non Read more…