Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

A few basket Cases…

A quieter end to the month as oversold conditions are at least stabilising if not obviously (yet) reversing. This has been a steady slide, rather than a crash per se, but markets remain fragile. With the Fed still sucking liquidity Read more…


AFR Article

This weekend we had another article in Australian Financial Review. It is behind a paywall, so we reproduce it here. Nowhere to hide as Fed liquidity evaporates (afr.com) Links within the article or shown below are to other AFR articles. Read more…


Turns out the Unicorns were in the wrong ARK

The collapse of Crypto is important, but likely not as significant for markets and economies as the collapse of the Unicorns from a supposed $3.7tn valuation to…a lot less. Like the Dot Coms before them, the ecosystem attracted a lot Read more…


Is it time to re-peg the HK$?

The world of FX reserves has been upended over the freezing of Russia’s assets in a way not seen since Nixon closed the Gold Window in 1971. The arrival of the Petro-Ruble marks the end of the Petro-$ that emerged Read more…


Stranded in Rockpools

In the Monthly Market Thinking, we focused on the rapidly retreating market liquidity and repeated Warren Buffet’s quote about seeing who is left swimming naked. A variation on that might be to consider some of the bigger ‘fish’ in the Read more…


Has Inflation Peaked?

One of the most important questions facing investors is not inflation per se, but perceptions of inflation. The Fed is focused on inflation expectations in setting wages, while markets are focussed on the Fed’s perceptions of those expectations and the Read more…


May Market Thinking

Overview – Tide Going Out The liquidity tide is going out. The relief rally from the middle of March has completely unwound, leaving April as one of the worst performing months in Equity markets for years -especially in the NASDAQ. Read more…


FX, the signals behind the noise

FX markets always have a narrative. Right now the obvious one is that strength of the $ can be attributed to a simple relative interest rates model, so it’s all about the Fed. But they may also be telling us Read more…


Take the long way home…

The return to Hong Kong has finally arrived, after the HK authorities dropped their ridiculous three week wash-out plus three week hotel quarantine requirements, that had made a ‘desk to desk’ transition period of six weeks. But the inefficiencies, not Read more…


Ukraine’s Energy Reserves

At 1.03trillion cubic metres (tcm), Ukraine has the second largest gas reserves in Europe after Norway, and yet it is a net importer of gas, since it only produces 20bcm a year while consuming nearer 27bcm, leaving it with an Read more…