Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

August Market Thinking

Are we there yet? Markets are asking the same question as bored children stuck in a long delay at Dover “Are we there yet?” The second half of July saw yet another bear market rally and while we are not Read more…


Prices, Probabilities and Predictions

The rally in the 10 year bond and the selloff in Commodity prices have been taken by many pundits as ‘Predictions’ of future economic activity, i.e a collapse in demand, a recession and a reduction in the threat of inflation. Read more…


AFR Article

Below is the latest article for Australia Financial Review, making two key points. First that moves in markets may lead rather than reflect Economic forecasts and thus we need to be careful of predictions based on market moves – especially Read more…


What Cricket can teach the Tories

A wise man once said that everything made sense when viewed through either the movies of the Godfather or the rules of English Cricket. With that in mind, we would consider the opportunities now facing the UK Conservative Party as Read more…


July Market Thinking

Markets are breaking Free. Governments have been trying to fix markets for over a decade but reality is now biting. This, in fact, is the real “Great Reset’. Free Markets are not about political systems but are those that are Read more…


Build a Bear

Bond market volatility continues to lead all markets lower, triggering a further round of deleveraging. Cryotos have been crushed and Credit markets appear to have hit capitulation, even if equities have not. FX volatility, especially in the Yen, is also Read more…


June Market Thinking

Slightly More Confident The market fall this year has been steady and relentless rather than a panic crash, and last month the Sell in May mantra cut through and markets switched to bear market behaviour of selling rallies and not Read more…


The Third Horseman

The arrival of War so soon after Pestilence or Plague has unsurprisingly led many to speculate (some idly, others determinedly) as to whether the Third of the Four Horseman of the Apocalypse is due soon. That one of course is Read more…


Bloomberg TV

Nice to be back in the studio with David and Vanessa this morning- so much better than the Zoom calls! Nice of Bloomberg to send a link through as well. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2022-05-26/market-thinking-mark-tinker-on-global-markets-video For interest, I have added the notes we put Read more…


A few basket Cases…

A quieter end to the month as oversold conditions are at least stabilising if not obviously (yet) reversing. This has been a steady slide, rather than a crash per se, but markets remain fragile. With the Fed still sucking liquidity Read more…