Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

Drilling Down

If we only look at the top-down numbers for Asset Classes we risk missing the underlying stories and information that is ‘out there’. Thus while April saw something of ‘A reversal of the reversal, as we discussed in the May Read more…


One world, two ‘realities’

The growth of AI in both financial markets and society as a whole is skewing our behaviour towards ‘left brain’ characteristics of transactions, data and goal seeking and away from right brain characteristics of analysis, interpretation and context. Computers need Read more…


Market Thinking May

A Pause that Refreshes… Market movements in April might best be described as an apparent ‘reversal of the reversal’ as many of the winners of the inflation/reflation trade that began in October appeared to sell off while the ‘losers’ rallied. Read more…


Trojan Horses and Slippery Slopes

An under-rated risk for western economies is that in pushing back against the centralisation of state power under the Health Crisis, voters will unintentionally now allow an even greater grab of power by different parts of the state under the Read more…


Red Glasses Award

Back in the 1990s a colleague used to pronounce on the annual “Red Glasses Award’ designed to highlight the most egregious examples of rent extraction from gullible management teams for corporate ‘rebranding’. Our favourite back then was the 1989 multi Read more…


The Return of Smart Beta?

Our good friends at Redburn alerted us to the fact that the S&P 500 Equal weighted index made a new all time closing high this week, which we thought made a good occasion to revisit the relationship between the Equal Read more…


IRL v WFH

Short term Uncertainty and Medium Term Risks While we continue to puzzle over official pronouncements on the pandemic, markets are nevertheless thinking about growth, inflation and asset allocation. One of the issues challenging asset allocators in particular at the moment Read more…


The world’s most expensive pizza

Way back in 2010 – like before the Ipad – a computer programmer used Bitcoin to buy a Pizza. The cost? 10,000 Bitcoin. Yes, 10,000. That is $630m at today’s exchange rate. That’s some pizza. This week we saw the Read more…


The illiquidity Trap

There is a corner of the FT that continues to do sterling work as financial journalists, having alerted us to, inter-alia, Wirecard, Greensill, Softbank, (especially with We Work but also some of the other egregious actions of the former Deutsche Read more…


Whiskey and Car Keys

The following is the text of an article submitted to Australian Financial Review – albeit with a title added by us. We do this on a regular basis, but since it is behind a paywall many of our readers can Read more…