Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

Opening the ‘blind eye’…

Short Term Uncertainties As Equities and Commodities moved higher, western investors in Chinese VIE structures got a shock as one of the hitherto ignored risks to the sector (change in Chinese policy) suddenly appeared. The other risks – taxation and Read more…


The non-Zero risks of Zero Risk policies

The Short Term Uncertainties for markets remain about Covid, sometimes, as this week, a ‘panic’ about the virus itself, but mainly about the economy-damaging Zero Covid policies being pursued in ‘the Rest of the West’ (i.e Europe, UK, Canada, Australia Read more…


Robots and Co-Bots

Having slipped slightly out of synch due to holidsays etc, the latest Market Thinker post is up at CitiWire. In it I look at the ‘early’ theme of robotics and automation, noting how it is shifting from hardware to software Read more…


Life in the fast (Zil) Lane

The enduring image for many of the hypocrisy of the ruling elite in the Soviet Union was the Zil lane – the fact that Politburo members were whisked in Zil limousines past the ‘peasants’ stuck in the very traffic jams Read more…


A small prediction

Or two. First, that the Medical Industrial Complex is going to push its agenda to the maximum in the U.K. ahead of the much delayed ‘dropping of restrictions’ on Monday. Second that the opinion polls will be wrong. Again.The propaganda Read more…


Market Thinking July

The fundamentals remain intact; the Covid-Policy Induced Economic shutdown is clearly behind us, with Asia (ex Hong Kong) and the US leading the return to normality while Europe and the UK still lag. Temporary demand supply/imbalances are spiking commodity prices Read more…


Logic’s Coming Home

The last year has seen an extra-ordinary suspension of logic in a lot of policy announcements, with Governments seemingly requiring positive proof from those opposing their Covid restrictions that their (often random) policies don’t work, rather than the Government having Read more…


Zero Trust..the need for Cyber Security

The latest piece for Citiwire was delayed, but is now up at the following link. A fuller piece on the subject will appear in the blog next week as usual. https://citywireselector.com/news/the-market-thinker-cyber-security-themes-you-need-in-your-portfolios/a1523514?ref=citywire-global-latest-news-list


Front Running

The Bond market is trying to front run the Fed (as usual), while traders trying to front run China are finding a more determined adversary. As we used to see with FX markets, monetary authorities will intervene to push markets Read more…


Energy Thematics

The second CitiWire piece on Thematic investing is from two weeks ago and was about Investing in Energy, not just the fashionable Clean Energy Sector, but also the old fashioned stuff needed to keep the economy moving. Naturally we made Read more…