Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

December Market Thinking

With the end to Mutual Fund tax-related selling in October and the closing out of the CTA hedge fund short positions ahead of Thanksgiving in November, the equity markets finally managed to put together two back to back positive months, Read more…


The Mountains are high….

There is a tendency in the west to see China as an authoritarian monolith – in contrast to the supposedly highly accountable democratic west, albeit only those with the shortest of memories can look at the current protests against Covid Read more…


Money in the Bank(s)

The top down case for European Banks – this time it really is different As Hong Kong finally opens up, we had the opportunity to catch up with some of our friends and colleagues from Toscafund who were marketing in Read more…


Tokens and Tinker Bell Economics

With my surname, I really had to post this link from the Streetwise Professor Blog about Tinker Bell Economics. But mainly I have highlighted it because it’s really good. token valuation relies on magic–belief, actually. That is, tokens are valuable Read more…


MADE FALSE BANK, AM RUIN*

*On the basis that among the many things we couldn’t believe about the FTX debacle, we thought it couldn’t be a real name, we tried myriad versions of anagrams of Sam(uel) Bankman Fried and concluded that while Slam me a Read more…


November Market Thinking

Seasonality in markets often has underlying market mechanics behind it. The end of October for example is the deadline for tax loss selling by US mutual funds, something overlooked in a bull market, but obviously highly important this year, while Read more…


Is US tax driving Chinese stocks?

While Asian investors may have been waiting for Mid October and the end of the CCP conference for ‘something to happen’, US investors in China may have been waiting to see if there was any prospect of a bounce before Read more…


Fear of being out replaced by fear of being in (anything but $ cash)

The most crowded trade in markets at the moment is $ cash. Fear rather than greed is dominating sentiment for both retail and professional investors and, with yields approaching 4%, cash is back as an asset class once more. Of Read more…


A very British Coup

The marvellous British word ‘defenestration’ is seemingly only ever used when a politician is metaphorically thrown out of the proverbial window and as such will doubtless be all over the UK press in the next few days as Chancellor Kwasi Read more…


Time and Momentum

The 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party will be presented as a time of calm in a sea of international chaos as Xi looks to a third term and further progress to his view of socialism. Investors can expect Read more…