making sense of the narrative
September 29, 2022
A new government and a crisis mini-Budget are perfect catalysts for macro traders to double down on existing large and already highly profitable strategies and to produce persuasive narratives to back it up. Thus, going into month and quarter end Read more…
September 21, 2022
Bringing together our series on Model Portfolios, we show how a balanced 60:40 Portfolio of Equities and Bonds based on our Global Bond Model Portfolio combined with either our Global Equity Factor Model Portfolio (Portfolio 1) or our Global Equity Read more…
September 16, 2022
Central to Market Thinking is the notion that there are Three Tribes at work in markets – the short term leveraged traders, the medium term asset allocators and risk managers and the long term investors. Sometimes they all move in Read more…
September 12, 2022
In our last post on Model Portfolios*, we considered looking at Global Equities through the lens of Factors – Momentum, Min Volatility, Value, Quality and Size. This allowed us to achieve diversification, while Dynamic allocation between the factors allowed us Read more…
September 9, 2022
Thursday 8th September will be one of those days we all remember where we were when we heard, the day the UK lost a Monarch and the world lost a Queen. It is, quite literally, the end of an era. Read more…
September 5, 2022
In our first post about our Model Portfolios*, on Global Bonds, we explained that we run Model Portfolios for two reasons: Firstly, to help us understand the dynamics operating within markets and second to demonstrate the power of Dynamic Allocation between components Read more…
September 2, 2022
Zero Policies and the Policies of ‘Zero’ With the long summer holidays and so many elections coming up, there is a feeling of Policy Paralysis going on, but also a recognition that this is about to change. In particular, the Read more…
September 1, 2022
A little noticed (by most) statement came out in early July – effectively the day of Boris Johnson’s resignation – from an unusual source, a joint press release by Britain’s MI5 and the US FBI. The statement was on China Read more…
August 31, 2022
We are making a series of posts about our various model portfolios, starting with Global Bonds. The Bond Portfolio shown here is key to what drove our earlier views on not owning bonds at the end of last year (see Read more…
August 26, 2022
The article below is a slightly extended version of one posted on the Livewire site, that can be found here The Annual Central Banker jamboree at Jackson Hole this weekend is likely to feature the usual set of earnest presentations Read more…