Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

Build a Bear

Bond market volatility continues to lead all markets lower, triggering a further round of deleveraging. Cryotos have been crushed and Credit markets appear to have hit capitulation, even if equities have not. FX volatility, especially in the Yen, is also Read more…


June Market Thinking

Slightly More Confident The market fall this year has been steady and relentless rather than a panic crash, and last month the Sell in May mantra cut through and markets switched to bear market behaviour of selling rallies and not Read more…


The Third Horseman

The arrival of War so soon after Pestilence or Plague has unsurprisingly led many to speculate (some idly, others determinedly) as to whether the Third of the Four Horseman of the Apocalypse is due soon. That one of course is Read more…


Bloomberg TV

Nice to be back in the studio with David and Vanessa this morning- so much better than the Zoom calls! Nice of Bloomberg to send a link through as well. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2022-05-26/market-thinking-mark-tinker-on-global-markets-video For interest, I have added the notes we put Read more…


A few basket Cases…

A quieter end to the month as oversold conditions are at least stabilising if not obviously (yet) reversing. This has been a steady slide, rather than a crash per se, but markets remain fragile. With the Fed still sucking liquidity Read more…


AFR Article

This weekend we had another article in Australian Financial Review. It is behind a paywall, so we reproduce it here. Nowhere to hide as Fed liquidity evaporates (afr.com) Links within the article or shown below are to other AFR articles. Read more…


Turns out the Unicorns were in the wrong ARK

The collapse of Crypto is important, but likely not as significant for markets and economies as the collapse of the Unicorns from a supposed $3.7tn valuation to…a lot less. Like the Dot Coms before them, the ecosystem attracted a lot Read more…


Is it time to re-peg the HK$?

The world of FX reserves has been upended over the freezing of Russia’s assets in a way not seen since Nixon closed the Gold Window in 1971. The arrival of the Petro-Ruble marks the end of the Petro-$ that emerged Read more…


Stranded in Rockpools

In the Monthly Market Thinking, we focused on the rapidly retreating market liquidity and repeated Warren Buffet’s quote about seeing who is left swimming naked. A variation on that might be to consider some of the bigger ‘fish’ in the Read more…


Has Inflation Peaked?

One of the most important questions facing investors is not inflation per se, but perceptions of inflation. The Fed is focused on inflation expectations in setting wages, while markets are focussed on the Fed’s perceptions of those expectations and the Read more…