Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

Mean Reversion and Momentum. Markets have two ‘modes’ – momentum and mean reversion. Last year of course was a huge momentum year for the Macro Traders. On the negative side. They made their huge profits from a short position in Read more…


Mean Reversion

Kung hei Fat Choy! Firstly, a Happy Chinese New Year to all our friends and colleagues in Asia, for as we pointed out in a post this time a year ago Chinese New Year is celebrated not only in Greater Read more…


Rabbiting On…New Year, New Medium(s)

Just before Christmas, I was delighted to have the opportunity to chat with Angelo Robles, founder of the US based Family Office Association about a wide range of subjects, but in particular how we at Market Thinking saw the coming Read more…


Monday Morning Musings

We are re-introducing two regular posts, Monday Morning Musings and Friday Market Thinking to book-end the week, on the basis that regular postings are appreciated by readers, as well as providing a good discipline for ourselves. Other posts will continue Read more…


Putting (some) chips back on the table

Macro Traders had their best year in decades in 2022, benefitting from clear negative trends in Bonds, Equities, commodities and currencies (against the $), but they largely cashed out after Thanksgiving, leading to some squeezed short positions creating a slightly Read more…


January Market Thinking

Year ahead views and thoughts The consensus forecast for the Global Economy in 2023 is pretty clear, a peak in inflation and a sharp slowdown in GDP that will be ‘short but not painless’. The associated view for markets, however, Read more…


Gold, Franc-incensed and Emir

Karl Marx famously said that Religion was the opiate of the masses, while legendary Liverpool Football managers Bill Shankly said Football “wasn’t just a matter of life and death, it was more important than that”. Certainly, in these troubled times Read more…


Will Central Banks break ranks?

Currently, equity markets in general are stuck just below their long term moving averages and, as we might put it, look to be ending a bear phase but not yet entering a bull phase, similarly gold, while credit and Bonds Read more…


China Covid Policy – update

In a recent note (The mountains are high..) we noted that: “China has a tendency to ‘test’ new policies on certain regions before going ‘nationwide’ with them. Thus, it is entirely possible for, say, the Greater Bay Area, including Hong Read more…


December Market Thinking

With the end to Mutual Fund tax-related selling in October and the closing out of the CTA hedge fund short positions ahead of Thanksgiving in November, the equity markets finally managed to put together two back to back positive months, Read more…