Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

Model Portfolios 2020

Overview – A good year for the Roses The rollercoaster performance of markets was a baptism of fire for the Model Portfolios we were actively running over the last year and a strong challenge to the concept of Dynamic Asset Read more…


Crackdown

This post was originally set to go out on Friday, but we thought it worth digesting the narrative being created over the weekend after the ‘storming’ of the Capitol by Trump supporters. What is clear from the hyperbolic – and Read more…


A Peg Protection Parallel to Prevent further Pan(dem)ic

One of the (few) advantages of getting older is the benefit of experience, if not always wisdom. As such we sometimes spot patterns that are not necessarily picked up by historical graphs or datasets, based on ‘lived experience’. Thus in Read more…


People versus Systems

There is an old (and valuable) piece of advice that says never send an angry email at night and many is the time that a ‘rant’ about something has sat on the ‘draft’ pages of wordpress until the following morning, Read more…


The Full Melchett

In a tiresomely predictable piece of policy-based evidence-making, the UK authorities have continued to use their self appropriated powers to put almost all of the UK into their new Tier 4, which is lockdown by any other name, although importantly Read more…


Market Thinking January 2021

As we look into 2021, we recognise that while on the one hand markets tend to extend their time horizon somewhat at the start of the year, on the other hand the world does not change simply because the calendar Read more…


A Christmas Murder Mystery

Who killed Old Normal? The scene is a grand country house where the owner, Lord Normal, has been found dead in the library. Foul play is suspected and, true to form for Murder Mysteries, our Detective has assembled the list Read more…


Aussie Dollar moves from Commodity to Currency

The following is based on an article submitted to the Australian Financial Review for this weekend. As such it obviously has an Australian angle, but one that is also important for investors understanding how the new RCEP trade bloc is Read more…


Market Thinking December

As usual, markets are now largely flat going into year end and the investor time horizon is starting to stretch out a little as we consider the prospects for 2021. By all accounts, the government restrictions, particularly in the west Read more…


Politics and Business

While many investors and company analysts may think themselves puzzled by the current behaviour of politicians, they really shouldn’t be, for in many senses it is exactly the same behavior regularly demonstrated by the senior management in large corporations. Indeed, Read more…