Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

May Market Thinking

Overview – Tide Going Out The liquidity tide is going out. The relief rally from the middle of March has completely unwound, leaving April as one of the worst performing months in Equity markets for years -especially in the NASDAQ. Read more…


FX, the signals behind the noise

FX markets always have a narrative. Right now the obvious one is that strength of the $ can be attributed to a simple relative interest rates model, so it’s all about the Fed. But they may also be telling us Read more…


Take the long way home…

The return to Hong Kong has finally arrived, after the HK authorities dropped their ridiculous three week wash-out plus three week hotel quarantine requirements, that had made a ‘desk to desk’ transition period of six weeks. But the inefficiencies, not Read more…


Ukraine’s Energy Reserves

At 1.03trillion cubic metres (tcm), Ukraine has the second largest gas reserves in Europe after Norway, and yet it is a net importer of gas, since it only produces 20bcm a year while consuming nearer 27bcm, leaving it with an Read more…


Bad Models Make Bad Policy

Ronald Reagan once said that the scariest words in the English language were ‘I’m from the government and I am here to help” and in our view there is no doubt that there is little that is more dangerous than Read more…


Market Thinking April

 Unforced Errors Overview April marks the start of the second quarter as well as the start of the new financial year for many and while the Ukraine crisis has thrown up new challenges – not least in eating as well Read more…


AFR Article

The latest piece for Australian Financial Review (AFR) is up. Since it’s behind a paywall I have posted it below. The links shown are to other related AFR articles. Subscribers can simply click the link or the link here for Read more…


Is it time for the Bancor?

Amid all the discussions about the sanctions – and counter sanctions- against Russia, an extremely important issue is rearing its head; what is the future of the Petro-Dollar? And, more broadly, what is the future for the dollar as the Read more…


Pre-Positioning and Re-Positioning.

Much as we like to attribute moves in markets to ‘the news’, more often than not it is the more prosaic elements of portfolio rebalancing and dealer positioning that are the actual driving forces. Post the latest option expiry, this Read more…


Signs and Portents

” Beware the Ides of March”. There is no reason to feel a bit nervous about the date as President Zelensky addresses a Senate, just as Caesar did on this day in 44 BC, other than the fact that those Read more…