Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

Danger UXB

Danger UXB was a British TV series about a company of soldiers dealing with UXBs, or Unexploded Bombs, left in London after the Blitz. Made in the late 1970s it will doubtless be familiar to BoE governor Andrew Bailey and Read more…


October Market Thinking

September exceeded even its own reputation as a terrible month for markets, with equities and bonds both down heavily, as well as commodities, and almost the only thing going up (apart from volatility) was the US$. The fact that these Read more…


LDI – Leveraged and Dangerously Illiquid?

The recent panic in the LDI market has received a lot of coverage, some of it breathless and designed to promote a short narrative, but much of it calm and authoritative – and generally pointing out the broader issues. As Read more…


Dealing with the Triple Threat(s)

UK households face the triple threat to their finances of higher energy prices, higher interest rates and higher taxes. Meanwhile, the new UK government trying to deal with this face a different triple threat of the markets, their political opponents Read more…


$ to everyone : “It’s not you. It’s me”

A new government and a crisis mini-Budget are perfect catalysts for macro traders to double down on existing large and already highly profitable strategies and to produce persuasive narratives to back it up. Thus, going into month and quarter end Read more…


Model Portfolios 60:40

Bringing together our series on Model Portfolios, we show how a balanced 60:40 Portfolio of Equities and Bonds based on our Global Bond Model Portfolio combined with either our Global Equity Factor Model Portfolio (Portfolio 1) or our Global Equity Read more…


A Tale of Two Systems

Central to Market Thinking is the notion that there are Three Tribes at work in markets – the short term leveraged traders, the medium term asset allocators and risk managers and the long term investors. Sometimes they all move in Read more…


Model Portfolios – Global Themes

In our last post on Model Portfolios*, we considered looking at Global Equities through the lens of Factors – Momentum, Min Volatility, Value, Quality and Size. This allowed us to achieve diversification, while Dynamic allocation between the factors allowed us Read more…


End of an Era

Thursday 8th September will be one of those days we all remember where we were when we heard, the day the UK lost a Monarch and the world lost a Queen. It is, quite literally, the end of an era. Read more…


Model Portfolios – Global Equity Factors

In our first post about our Model Portfolios*, on Global Bonds, we explained that we run Model Portfolios for two reasons: Firstly, to help us understand the dynamics operating within markets and second to demonstrate the power of Dynamic Allocation between components Read more…