Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

Market Thinking April

As March ended and closed out the first quarter, it also marked the anniversary of the equity and Credit market lows triggered by the Great Covid Panic of 2020. Intervention by the Fed to prevent market dislocation and an unprecedented Read more…


An April Fool and their money..

Normally on April 1st in the UK we would expect to see various spoof articles in the paper and on the TV, but on the basis that almost everything announced over the last 12 months might previously have been considered Read more…


Arch – Egos? We like to look for nominative determinism where we can find it, so to see that the over-leveraged US Hedge Fund that was forced to aggressively de-leverage on Friday was called ArchEgos was too good to miss. Read more…


A Sustainable Bubble?

We have noted on many occasions the seemingly unstoppable trend towards a ‘green’ takeover of the western economy consistent with a centralisation of the allocation of capital according to the UN sustainability agenda. This risks high volatility and stock specific Read more…


Awkward Thought Experiments

We live in a world in which we are increasingly ‘given the opinions we are supposed to hold’. One antidote to this is to apply the logic of received opinion number one to situation number two. This results in some Read more…


Another Spring, still not sprung

Almost a year ago when we wrote Spring but not sprung we were worried that the government was too risk averse, but never thought we would still be in lockdown as a second spring arrives with most of the West Read more…


Buying which dip?

We like to think of the market moving in a variety of ‘herds’, with the opportunities for the biggest herd, the long term investor, being presented by the behaviours of the other two, the Asset Allocators and the short term Read more…


Changing Narratives..

Market Thinking is subtitled ‘making sense of the Narrative’ because markets are as much about the stories we tell ourselves as any of the so called fundamentals. Indeed, the fundamentals we focus on are always the ones that fit the Read more…


Market Thinking March

Rotating out of long Duration Assets March is a key month for most asset allocators, as the options expiry on the third Friday of the month is one of the first major opportunities to ‘reposition’ portfolios by putting on new Read more…