Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

False positives and False certainty

While notionally about Covid (isn’t everything at the moment?), this is more about data, uncertainty and risk, ie the key elements of sensible investing. In their excellent work on Radical Uncertainty, former Bank of England Governor, Mervyn King and journalist Read more…


The Rule of Five Foot Six

One wag recently pointed out that the Rule of Six in the UK seems to have become the Rule of Six people; Boris, Gove, Cummings, Hancock, Rishi and Sturgeon. However, as the house of commons prepares to vote on the Read more…


No escaping the Covid narrative just yet

Just when I thought I was out, they pulled me back in again Michael Corleone. Godfather lll A wise man once said that all life could be explained through one of two prisms, Cricket and the films of the Godfather Read more…


Market Thinking October

Markets dropped back during the course of the month as liquidity moved to the sidelines ahead of the US Presidential Elections, which are now entering their final stage. The potential risk from the mid month options expiry in the basket Read more…


In Reply to AEP on China

The comments sections in online newspapers can often be more interesting and informative than the original articles and sometimes as part of the daily research process we comment on articles ourselves; partly to help inform the debate, but partly as Read more…


OK Boomer?

The US Election marks the passing of the Boomers, three of the last four US Presidents were born within two months of each other in 1946 Last night was the first of the US Presidential debates and, as ever, the Read more…


From Dad’s Army to Blackadder goes forth

When governments first started responding to the Covid 19 pandemic by locking down economies and using War metaphors, we suggested that it all had the air of the British Comedy series Dad’s Army; with the Media acting as Corporal Jones, Read more…


It’s only a rort if you’re not in it

The options expiry on Friday was closely watched thanks to the fun and games in the Gamma markets initiated by Softbank in July and August but was fortunately not too disruptive. A quick recap; by buying a basket of underlying Read more…


Going to build a Great Big Beautiful (Fire and Tariff)Wall

The ‘Clean network to safeguard US Assets’ aka the new Firewall being proudly touted by Mike Pompeo and as discussed on the blog here last month is likely to have some important and largely unintended consequences. The announcement this week Read more…


Pulling to the sidelines

Sterling dropped, Tech dropped, Oil prices dropped. It all feels like some de-leveraging going on. As the west goes back to work and school (or at least tries to), there is a feeling of money coming off the table. The Read more…