Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

Has the WHO just given politicians a way out?

The heavy politicisation of Covid in the US Elections is a key reason why we have our fingers crossed that things will calm down after November 3rd, whoever wins. It is clear that the Democrats see it as their best Read more…


Is the CNY telling us something important?

While everything that is not Covid or Trump (or both) is getting pushed to the side at the moment, there are actually some really interesting things going on elsewhere that deserve our attention. In particular one trend that seems to Read more…


Friday Market Thinking

One Regime, Two Parties The Vice Presidential Debate this week was an overwhelming victory for Kamala Harris. Or Mike Pence. It rather depended on which side you asked. For the small number of pro Trump media outlets, Harris was exposed Read more…


False positives and False certainty

While notionally about Covid (isn’t everything at the moment?), this is more about data, uncertainty and risk, ie the key elements of sensible investing. In their excellent work on Radical Uncertainty, former Bank of England Governor, Mervyn King and journalist Read more…


The Rule of Five Foot Six

One wag recently pointed out that the Rule of Six in the UK seems to have become the Rule of Six people; Boris, Gove, Cummings, Hancock, Rishi and Sturgeon. However, as the house of commons prepares to vote on the Read more…


No escaping the Covid narrative just yet

Just when I thought I was out, they pulled me back in again Michael Corleone. Godfather lll A wise man once said that all life could be explained through one of two prisms, Cricket and the films of the Godfather Read more…


Market Thinking October

Markets dropped back during the course of the month as liquidity moved to the sidelines ahead of the US Presidential Elections, which are now entering their final stage. The potential risk from the mid month options expiry in the basket Read more…


In Reply to AEP on China

The comments sections in online newspapers can often be more interesting and informative than the original articles and sometimes as part of the daily research process we comment on articles ourselves; partly to help inform the debate, but partly as Read more…


OK Boomer?

The US Election marks the passing of the Boomers, three of the last four US Presidents were born within two months of each other in 1946 Last night was the first of the US Presidential debates and, as ever, the Read more…


From Dad’s Army to Blackadder goes forth

When governments first started responding to the Covid 19 pandemic by locking down economies and using War metaphors, we suggested that it all had the air of the British Comedy series Dad’s Army; with the Media acting as Corporal Jones, Read more…