Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

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Category: COVID-19

Has the WHO just given politicians a way out?

The heavy politicisation of Covid in the US Elections is a key reason why we have our fingers crossed that things will calm down after November 3rd, whoever wins. It is clear that the Democrats see it as their best Read more…


Warden Hodges is running the narrative

In a previous post back in May, we highlighted how the UK response to Covid resembled nothing so much as an episode of Dads Army: with the scientists at Imperial College playing the role of Private Frazer (“We’re all doomed”), Read more…


Covid and the 5 Monkeys Experiment

The Five Monkeys experiment is a classic thought experiment with implications for human behaviour. The following pictogram sums it up. Essentially this is where we appear to be right now with Covid and social distancing. As Jonathan Sumption pointed out Read more…


Let’s just copy the other guy

The economics of shutdown will undoubtedly go into the history books, but so will the psychology and the politics, as well as the psychology of the politics. Right now, the logical gymnastics being performed to not only justify previous policies Read more…


Ask an expert

There are two important aphorisms to remember when consulting ‘experts’ ; the first is Warren Buffet’s comment that “You should never ask a barber if you need a haircut” , or in a similar vein, ask a General if you Read more…


We are in a real life Stamford Prison Experiment

One of the most famous chapters in psychology involves what is  known as the Stamford Prison experiment, conducted by a Stamford Psychology Professor Zimbardo back in in 1971. In the experiment a group of volunteers were randomly split into two Read more…


The consensus being challenged..

Having highlighted the role of Professor Neil Ferguson and the team of catastrophists at Imperial College in the 2001 Foot and Mouth Disease response (Oxford versus Imperial) it was interesting to see the article in the Daily Telegraph on Saturday Read more…


Oxford or Imperial?

While (still) not being an expert on viruses, we note the difference of opinion between several people that are. In one corner we have the catastrophists from Imperial College London (who as noted in a previous post were the people Read more…


Lessons from FMD 2001

When we see an unexpected event in markets, there is a tendency to quickly check ‘What Happened Last Time?’ (WHLT). In fact, WHLT is the basis for the majority of financial and other models generally, although we give it fancier Read more…


The Venkman Protocol

“But of I’m right and we can stop this thing…Lenny, you will have saved the lives of millions of registered votes” Dr Peter Venkman, to Mayor Lenny, Ghostbusters 1984 Like more than 99% of the people commenting on the Covid Read more…