Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

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Category: COVID-19

The consensus being challenged..

Having highlighted the role of Professor Neil Ferguson and the team of catastrophists at Imperial College in the 2001 Foot and Mouth Disease response (Oxford versus Imperial) it was interesting to see the article in the Daily Telegraph on Saturday Read more…


Oxford or Imperial?

While (still) not being an expert on viruses, we note the difference of opinion between several people that are. In one corner we have the catastrophists from Imperial College London (who as noted in a previous post were the people Read more…


Lessons from FMD 2001

When we see an unexpected event in markets, there is a tendency to quickly check ‘What Happened Last Time?’ (WHLT). In fact, WHLT is the basis for the majority of financial and other models generally, although we give it fancier Read more…


The Venkman Protocol

“But of I’m right and we can stop this thing…Lenny, you will have saved the lives of millions of registered votes” Dr Peter Venkman, to Mayor Lenny, Ghostbusters 1984 Like more than 99% of the people commenting on the Covid Read more…


Buying the dips to selling the rallies?

In the last post (Market Thinking February) we noted how the traders were anticipating an interest rate cut, which duly arrived to much ‘surprise’, but that we were nervous about a shift in sentiment by long term investors who would Read more…


COVID-19 cases plateauing, markets calming. Value opportunities emerging.

We said that we needed two things to be happening before engaging with markets over the Corona Virus panic. First, we had to see markets themselves begin to stabilise as distressed sellers are flushed out by asset allocators rebalancing portfolios Read more…