Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

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Category: Friday Market Thinking

Are short term markets giving us a glimpse of longer term trends?

Market Thinking looks for how the behaviour of short term traders can spill over into the actions of medium term asset allocators and ultimately long term investors. Right now, we are watching the behaviour of the Currency and Commodity markets Read more…


ESG – be careful what you wish for

As we noted in Wednesday Wanderer’s Wonderings, one of the biggest differences for markets between a Biden or Trump Presidency is likely to be that the former will embrace the concept of a Green New Deal and by extension ESG Read more…


Friday Market Thinking

One Regime, Two Parties The Vice Presidential Debate this week was an overwhelming victory for Kamala Harris. Or Mike Pence. It rather depended on which side you asked. For the small number of pro Trump media outlets, Harris was exposed Read more…


Friday Market Thinking

The S&P continues to grind higher, while the Shanghai Composite remains supported on its short term indicators, up 20% over the last three months. The offshore Yuan (CNY) is at its lowest (strongest) level against the US$ since March, while Read more…


Watching the $

As we head into an atypical summer, some issues like Italian debt have been postponed (again), while others, such as regulation of hedge funds and asset managers are starting to re-emerge – as are some longer terms trends like a Read more…


Travelling

Posting has been light this week due to travelling back to Europe and subsequent jet lag. A few observations however. No sooner had we posted on the template that Hong Kong provided for the west, both good and bad, than Read more…


Paging Michael Lewis

The revelation this week not only that Wirecard has filed for insolvency and CEO Marcus Braun been arrested, but that the ex derivative traders now running the SoftBank Vision fund had constructed something akin to a pump and dump scheme Read more…


Friday Market Thinking

Overview The markets had a choppy week as the noise trader equity rally ran out of steam and reversed somewhat, before the Fed once again provided support, this time through direct buying of US corporate debt. In some senses this Read more…


Well that didn’t take long.

Short term Uncertainty Well that didn’t take long. At the start of the week we noted that the noise traders had been making one of their periodic forays  into equity markets and pointed to a number of ‘red flags’ suggesting that Read more…