Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

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Category: Friday Market Thinking

Fear of being out replaced by fear of being in (anything but $ cash)

The most crowded trade in markets at the moment is $ cash. Fear rather than greed is dominating sentiment for both retail and professional investors and, with yields approaching 4%, cash is back as an asset class once more. Of Read more…


Danger UXB

Danger UXB was a British TV series about a company of soldiers dealing with UXBs, or Unexploded Bombs, left in London after the Blitz. Made in the late 1970s it will doubtless be familiar to BoE governor Andrew Bailey and Read more…


A Tale of Two Systems

Central to Market Thinking is the notion that there are Three Tribes at work in markets – the short term leveraged traders, the medium term asset allocators and risk managers and the long term investors. Sometimes they all move in Read more…


Build a Bear

Bond market volatility continues to lead all markets lower, triggering a further round of deleveraging. Cryotos have been crushed and Credit markets appear to have hit capitulation, even if equities have not. FX volatility, especially in the Yen, is also Read more…


New Themes and New Players

There is definitely a ‘profit taking’ feel around things at the moment, as Oil and Crypto both sell off and Gold and the Dollar rally. New players are not only moving into trading Crypto, but also in owning parts of Read more…


Bull markets and Bullet Trains..

After a weak September, Equity markets have recovered in the last few weeks as buy on the dips seems to have kicked back in (as well as some momentum chasing or buy on the rips) for a strong looking seasonal Read more…


What if the next big thing, isn’t?

There is an old line that the Stone Age didn’t end because they ran out of Stones and just as the Dot Com crash was not caused by a collapse in the share prices of typewriter companies and fax machine Read more…


Opening the ‘blind eye’…

Short Term Uncertainties As Equities and Commodities moved higher, western investors in Chinese VIE structures got a shock as one of the hitherto ignored risks to the sector (change in Chinese policy) suddenly appeared. The other risks – taxation and Read more…


Front Running

The Bond market is trying to front run the Fed (as usual), while traders trying to front run China are finding a more determined adversary. As we used to see with FX markets, monetary authorities will intervene to push markets Read more…


A NICE future for Uranium

With the G7 meeting in the UK coming up next week with a focus entirely on ‘Carbon’ and politicians everywhere seeking to out-compete one another to be ‘greener than thou’ it is probably no coincidence that this week, Bill Gates Read more…