Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

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Category: Friday Market Thinking

Opening the ‘blind eye’…

Short Term Uncertainties As Equities and Commodities moved higher, western investors in Chinese VIE structures got a shock as one of the hitherto ignored risks to the sector (change in Chinese policy) suddenly appeared. The other risks – taxation and Read more…


Front Running

The Bond market is trying to front run the Fed (as usual), while traders trying to front run China are finding a more determined adversary. As we used to see with FX markets, monetary authorities will intervene to push markets Read more…


A NICE future for Uranium

With the G7 meeting in the UK coming up next week with a focus entirely on ‘Carbon’ and politicians everywhere seeking to out-compete one another to be ‘greener than thou’ it is probably no coincidence that this week, Bill Gates Read more…


Drilling Down

If we only look at the top-down numbers for Asset Classes we risk missing the underlying stories and information that is ‘out there’. Thus while April saw something of ‘A reversal of the reversal, as we discussed in the May Read more…


The Return of Smart Beta?

Our good friends at Redburn alerted us to the fact that the S&P 500 Equal weighted index made a new all time closing high this week, which we thought made a good occasion to revisit the relationship between the Equal Read more…


The world’s most expensive pizza

Way back in 2010 – like before the Ipad – a computer programmer used Bitcoin to buy a Pizza. The cost? 10,000 Bitcoin. Yes, 10,000. That is $630m at today’s exchange rate. That’s some pizza. This week we saw the Read more…


Markets in Q1

In reviewing the behaviour of markets in the first quarter we can use the prism of our Model Portfolios as well as the general benchmarks to try and capture the important elements of what happened, partly for review, but also Read more…


A Sustainable Bubble?

We have noted on many occasions the seemingly unstoppable trend towards a ‘green’ takeover of the western economy consistent with a centralisation of the allocation of capital according to the UN sustainability agenda. This risks high volatility and stock specific Read more…


Another Spring, still not sprung

Almost a year ago when we wrote Spring but not sprung we were worried that the government was too risk averse, but never thought we would still be in lockdown as a second spring arrives with most of the West Read more…


Themes and Memes

We like to look at markets as being driven by the behaviour of three different groups – the short term speculators, the medium term asset allocators and the longer term investors. Sometimes the three groups offset or partially offset one Read more…