Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

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Category: Friday Market Thinking

The Return of Smart Beta?

Our good friends at Redburn alerted us to the fact that the S&P 500 Equal weighted index made a new all time closing high this week, which we thought made a good occasion to revisit the relationship between the Equal Read more…


The world’s most expensive pizza

Way back in 2010 – like before the Ipad – a computer programmer used Bitcoin to buy a Pizza. The cost? 10,000 Bitcoin. Yes, 10,000. That is $630m at today’s exchange rate. That’s some pizza. This week we saw the Read more…


Markets in Q1

In reviewing the behaviour of markets in the first quarter we can use the prism of our Model Portfolios as well as the general benchmarks to try and capture the important elements of what happened, partly for review, but also Read more…


A Sustainable Bubble?

We have noted on many occasions the seemingly unstoppable trend towards a ‘green’ takeover of the western economy consistent with a centralisation of the allocation of capital according to the UN sustainability agenda. This risks high volatility and stock specific Read more…


Another Spring, still not sprung

Almost a year ago when we wrote Spring but not sprung we were worried that the government was too risk averse, but never thought we would still be in lockdown as a second spring arrives with most of the West Read more…


Themes and Memes

We like to look at markets as being driven by the behaviour of three different groups – the short term speculators, the medium term asset allocators and the longer term investors. Sometimes the three groups offset or partially offset one Read more…


Animal Spirits

Sentiment is an important driver of short term markets and with Chinese money being an increasingly significant factor in markets generally, so an understanding of Chinese psychology and sentiment becomes genuinely relevant. Today is the start of Chinese New Year, Read more…


VR meets VaR

As the laptop-wielding video gamers turned day traders take their battle to the Hedge Fund Masters of the Universe, they need to recognise that the regulators are going to come in soon. Many appear to have got their education on Read more…


Model Portfolios 2020

Overview – A good year for the Roses The rollercoaster performance of markets was a baptism of fire for the Model Portfolios we were actively running over the last year and a strong challenge to the concept of Dynamic Asset Read more…


Always Covid, Never Christmas

The latest set of regulations from the UK bring to mind the line from CS Lewis about Narnia, where it was “Always Winter but never Christmas”. C.S. Lewis was writing in a time of growing authoritarianism and at some point Read more…