Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

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Category: Friday Market Thinking

Build a Bear

Bond market volatility continues to lead all markets lower, triggering a further round of deleveraging. Cryotos have been crushed and Credit markets appear to have hit capitulation, even if equities have not. FX volatility, especially in the Yen, is also Read more…


New Themes and New Players

There is definitely a ‘profit taking’ feel around things at the moment, as Oil and Crypto both sell off and Gold and the Dollar rally. New players are not only moving into trading Crypto, but also in owning parts of Read more…


Bull markets and Bullet Trains..

After a weak September, Equity markets have recovered in the last few weeks as buy on the dips seems to have kicked back in (as well as some momentum chasing or buy on the rips) for a strong looking seasonal Read more…


What if the next big thing, isn’t?

There is an old line that the Stone Age didn’t end because they ran out of Stones and just as the Dot Com crash was not caused by a collapse in the share prices of typewriter companies and fax machine Read more…


Opening the ‘blind eye’…

Short Term Uncertainties As Equities and Commodities moved higher, western investors in Chinese VIE structures got a shock as one of the hitherto ignored risks to the sector (change in Chinese policy) suddenly appeared. The other risks – taxation and Read more…


Front Running

The Bond market is trying to front run the Fed (as usual), while traders trying to front run China are finding a more determined adversary. As we used to see with FX markets, monetary authorities will intervene to push markets Read more…


A NICE future for Uranium

With the G7 meeting in the UK coming up next week with a focus entirely on ‘Carbon’ and politicians everywhere seeking to out-compete one another to be ‘greener than thou’ it is probably no coincidence that this week, Bill Gates Read more…


Drilling Down

If we only look at the top-down numbers for Asset Classes we risk missing the underlying stories and information that is ‘out there’. Thus while April saw something of ‘A reversal of the reversal, as we discussed in the May Read more…


The Return of Smart Beta?

Our good friends at Redburn alerted us to the fact that the S&P 500 Equal weighted index made a new all time closing high this week, which we thought made a good occasion to revisit the relationship between the Equal Read more…


The world’s most expensive pizza

Way back in 2010 – like before the Ipad – a computer programmer used Bitcoin to buy a Pizza. The cost? 10,000 Bitcoin. Yes, 10,000. That is $630m at today’s exchange rate. That’s some pizza. This week we saw the Read more…