Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

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Category: Market Mechanics

LDI – Leveraged and Dangerously Illiquid?

The recent panic in the LDI market has received a lot of coverage, some of it breathless and designed to promote a short narrative, but much of it calm and authoritative – and generally pointing out the broader issues. As Read more…


Prices, Probabilities and Predictions

The rally in the 10 year bond and the selloff in Commodity prices have been taken by many pundits as ‘Predictions’ of future economic activity, i.e a collapse in demand, a recession and a reduction in the threat of inflation. Read more…


A few basket Cases…

A quieter end to the month as oversold conditions are at least stabilising if not obviously (yet) reversing. This has been a steady slide, rather than a crash per se, but markets remain fragile. With the Fed still sucking liquidity Read more…


Pre-Positioning and Re-Positioning.

Much as we like to attribute moves in markets to ‘the news’, more often than not it is the more prosaic elements of portfolio rebalancing and dealer positioning that are the actual driving forces. Post the latest option expiry, this Read more…


SoftBank? Again?

In market terminology a ‘Whale’ is a big fish that dominates markets for a while. Initially nobody knows who they are or exactly what they are doing, but instead observes the unusual behaviour of certain markets. It can be FX, Read more…