Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

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Category: Market Thinking

December Market Thinking

With the end to Mutual Fund tax-related selling in October and the closing out of the CTA hedge fund short positions ahead of Thanksgiving in November, the equity markets finally managed to put together two back to back positive months, Read more…


Money in the Bank(s)

The top down case for European Banks – this time it really is different As Hong Kong finally opens up, we had the opportunity to catch up with some of our friends and colleagues from Toscafund who were marketing in Read more…


November Market Thinking

Seasonality in markets often has underlying market mechanics behind it. The end of October for example is the deadline for tax loss selling by US mutual funds, something overlooked in a bull market, but obviously highly important this year, while Read more…


October Market Thinking

September exceeded even its own reputation as a terrible month for markets, with equities and bonds both down heavily, as well as commodities, and almost the only thing going up (apart from volatility) was the US$. The fact that these Read more…


LDI – Leveraged and Dangerously Illiquid?

The recent panic in the LDI market has received a lot of coverage, some of it breathless and designed to promote a short narrative, but much of it calm and authoritative – and generally pointing out the broader issues. As Read more…


Market Thinking September

Zero Policies and the Policies of ‘Zero’ With the long summer holidays and so many elections coming up, there is a feeling of Policy Paralysis going on, but also a recognition that this is about to change. In particular, the Read more…


August Market Thinking

Are we there yet? Markets are asking the same question as bored children stuck in a long delay at Dover “Are we there yet?” The second half of July saw yet another bear market rally and while we are not Read more…


July Market Thinking

Markets are breaking Free. Governments have been trying to fix markets for over a decade but reality is now biting. This, in fact, is the real “Great Reset’. Free Markets are not about political systems but are those that are Read more…


June Market Thinking

Slightly More Confident The market fall this year has been steady and relentless rather than a panic crash, and last month the Sell in May mantra cut through and markets switched to bear market behaviour of selling rallies and not Read more…


Turns out the Unicorns were in the wrong ARK

The collapse of Crypto is important, but likely not as significant for markets and economies as the collapse of the Unicorns from a supposed $3.7tn valuation to…a lot less. Like the Dot Coms before them, the ecosystem attracted a lot Read more…