making sense of the narrative
October 2, 2020
Markets dropped back during the course of the month as liquidity moved to the sidelines ahead of the US Presidential Elections, which are now entering their final stage. The potential risk from the mid month options expiry in the basket Read more…
September 4, 2020
Global Equity Markets continued to squeeze higher in August, particularly in Tech space as momentum and quality strategies continued to run heavily while Value continued to take a hit – albeit bouncing towards the end of the month.* The Dollar Read more…
August 4, 2020
In Market Thinking for July, we noted that, after one of the best ever quarterly performances for US equities, we thought that the choppy trading at the end of June signaled a changing of ownership from leveraged speculative traders to Read more…
July 3, 2020
Market Thinking is about making sense of the behaviours of the three key ‘tribes’ operating in markets; short term speculative traders, medium term asset allocators and long term investors. The first group are the most active and use a combination Read more…
June 2, 2020
Markets factored in much of the cyclical aspects of Covid into earnings during January and February. The crash in March was down to market mechanics such as positioning and distressed selling, margin calls and illiquidity. April and May have recovered that March sell-off so remain fairly, if not cheaply priced. Medium term risk in illiquid alternatives and corporate credit has been largely removed by the Fed, with GeoPolitics replacing it as the main concern, especially the New Cold War between the US and China. Investors should be considering those risks , together with the opportunities presented by the broad restructurings that the post Covid world will bring, focusing on ultra cheap capital for some and the importance of cash flow for all.
May 4, 2020
The monthly Market Thinking piece has shifted its title to reflect the coming month rather than the one just finished. As such, we jump from March to May. We have also included a new feature on Risk, Valuation and Model Read more…
April 2, 2020
March was to February 2020 what October was to September 2008, the Tsunami that followed the earthquake and, to continue the metaphor, it was, as then, down to liquidity. A wave of forced selling, induced by margin calls turned our Read more…
March 2, 2020
The fundamentals of Corona Virus matter less in the short term than the reality of the official response to it. Equally the presumed impact on earnings is less important than the technical selling, profit taking and straight out panic selling Read more…
February 3, 2020
Summary. The markets began the year anticipating uncertainty falling in the UK and Asia, thanks to Brexit and trade talks finally making progress, with the anticipated rise in uncertainty being focused around US politics and domestic policy reactions in an Read more…
January 1, 2020
If 2018 was ‘the year when nothing seemed to work’ in Equity markets, then 2019 was the year when everything seemed to, with many indices closing at all time highs and the villains of 2018 becoming the heroes of 2019. Read more…