Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

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Category: Market Thinking

Market Thinking May

A Pause that Refreshes… Market movements in April might best be described as an apparent ‘reversal of the reversal’ as many of the winners of the inflation/reflation trade that began in October appeared to sell off while the ‘losers’ rallied. Read more…


Market Thinking April

As March ended and closed out the first quarter, it also marked the anniversary of the equity and Credit market lows triggered by the Great Covid Panic of 2020. Intervention by the Fed to prevent market dislocation and an unprecedented Read more…


Market Thinking March

Rotating out of long Duration Assets March is a key month for most asset allocators, as the options expiry on the third Friday of the month is one of the first major opportunities to ‘reposition’ portfolios by putting on new Read more…


February Market Thinking

Following the powerful bounce from the March 2020 lows and the strength of the Santa Claus rallies at the end of the year, it was perhaps not too surprising to see some backing-off from the major equity indices towards the Read more…


Market Thinking January 2021

As we look into 2021, we recognise that while on the one hand markets tend to extend their time horizon somewhat at the start of the year, on the other hand the world does not change simply because the calendar Read more…


Market Thinking December

As usual, markets are now largely flat going into year end and the investor time horizon is starting to stretch out a little as we consider the prospects for 2021. By all accounts, the government restrictions, particularly in the west Read more…


November Market Thinking

The US Election looks to have gone to Biden, even though it also looks like it is going to the courts. In some ways, what is more important is that the failure of the widely predicted ‘Blue Wave’ to appear Read more…


Market Thinking October

Markets dropped back during the course of the month as liquidity moved to the sidelines ahead of the US Presidential Elections, which are now entering their final stage. The potential risk from the mid month options expiry in the basket Read more…


Market Thinking September 2020

Global Equity Markets continued to squeeze higher in August, particularly in Tech space as momentum and quality strategies continued to run heavily while Value continued to take a hit – albeit bouncing towards the end of the month.* The Dollar Read more…


Market Thinking August

In Market Thinking for July, we noted that, after one of the best ever quarterly performances for US equities, we thought that the choppy trading at the end of June signaled a changing of ownership from leveraged speculative traders to Read more…