Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

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Category: Market Thinking

June Market Thinking

Slightly More Confident The market fall this year has been steady and relentless rather than a panic crash, and last month the Sell in May mantra cut through and markets switched to bear market behaviour of selling rallies and not Read more…


Turns out the Unicorns were in the wrong ARK

The collapse of Crypto is important, but likely not as significant for markets and economies as the collapse of the Unicorns from a supposed $3.7tn valuation to…a lot less. Like the Dot Coms before them, the ecosystem attracted a lot Read more…


May Market Thinking

Overview – Tide Going Out The liquidity tide is going out. The relief rally from the middle of March has completely unwound, leaving April as one of the worst performing months in Equity markets for years -especially in the NASDAQ. Read more…


Bad Models Make Bad Policy

Ronald Reagan once said that the scariest words in the English language were ‘I’m from the government and I am here to help” and in our view there is no doubt that there is little that is more dangerous than Read more…


Market Thinking April

 Unforced Errors Overview April marks the start of the second quarter as well as the start of the new financial year for many and while the Ukraine crisis has thrown up new challenges – not least in eating as well Read more…


March Market Thinking

Regime Change Vladimir Putin’s adoption of established ‘Western’ tactics of Regime Change does not mean two wrongs make a right, not at all, but it does suggest that many other regimes will change as a result, regardless of how quickly Read more…


February Market Thinking

The sharp bounce back in early February for the headline indices on Equities will have come as a relief for many – although not for those forced to close positions or buy protection at the end of the month. Of Read more…


2016 Redux?

The markets appear to be having something of a re-run of early 2016, probably the last time that they worried about a tightening cycle. An early January rotation out of the MegaCaps into value and cyclicals by institutional investors on Read more…


Headline numbers hide the hits

The first few weeks of January have been as ‘bad’ as December was ‘good’, but much of this is a confusion between the headline numbers dominated by the megacaps and the reality beneath the surface, which is one of considerable Read more…


January Market Thinking

Traditionally, Year Ahead pieces tend to take the form of a laundry list of predictions about ‘key market variables’, alongside some narrative to support why these might be slightly above, or slightly below, the consensus. Sometimes, the predictions are deliberately Read more…