Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

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Category: Market Thinking

Market Thinking January 2021

As we look into 2021, we recognise that while on the one hand markets tend to extend their time horizon somewhat at the start of the year, on the other hand the world does not change simply because the calendar Read more…


Market Thinking December

As usual, markets are now largely flat going into year end and the investor time horizon is starting to stretch out a little as we consider the prospects for 2021. By all accounts, the government restrictions, particularly in the west Read more…


November Market Thinking

The US Election looks to have gone to Biden, even though it also looks like it is going to the courts. In some ways, what is more important is that the failure of the widely predicted ‘Blue Wave’ to appear Read more…


Market Thinking October

Markets dropped back during the course of the month as liquidity moved to the sidelines ahead of the US Presidential Elections, which are now entering their final stage. The potential risk from the mid month options expiry in the basket Read more…


Market Thinking September 2020

Global Equity Markets continued to squeeze higher in August, particularly in Tech space as momentum and quality strategies continued to run heavily while Value continued to take a hit – albeit bouncing towards the end of the month.* The Dollar Read more…


Market Thinking August

In Market Thinking for July, we noted that, after one of the best ever quarterly performances for US equities, we thought that the choppy trading at the end of June signaled a changing of ownership from leveraged speculative traders to Read more…


Market Thinking July 2020

Market Thinking is about making sense of the behaviours of the three key ‘tribes’ operating in markets; short term speculative traders, medium term asset allocators and long term investors. The first group are the most active and use a combination Read more…


Market Thinking June

Markets factored in much of the cyclical aspects of Covid into earnings during January and February. The crash in March was down to market mechanics such as positioning and distressed selling, margin calls and illiquidity. April and May have recovered that March sell-off so remain fairly, if not cheaply priced. Medium term risk in illiquid alternatives and corporate credit has been largely removed by the Fed, with GeoPolitics replacing it as the main concern, especially the New Cold War between the US and China. Investors should be considering those risks , together with the opportunities presented by the broad restructurings that the post Covid world will bring, focusing on ultra cheap capital for some and the importance of cash flow for all.


Market Thinking – May 2020

The monthly Market Thinking piece has shifted its title to reflect the coming month rather than the one just finished. As such, we jump from March to May. We have also included a new feature on Risk, Valuation and Model Read more…


Market Thinking March 2020

March was to February 2020 what October was to September 2008, the Tsunami that followed the earthquake and, to continue the metaphor, it was, as then, down to liquidity. A wave of forced selling, induced by margin calls turned our Read more…