Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

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Category: Monday Morning Musings

One world two systems

Since the Global Financial Crisis, the west has slowly woken up to the fact that China does not intend to play entirely by their rules. It has adapted its centralised approach to allow for market prices to send signals about Read more…


Is the noise obscuring the signal?

Nate Silver, the political pundit wrote a bestselling book in the wake of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis called the Signal and the Noise, with the subtitle ‘Why so many predictions fail, and some don’t”. The book made two important Read more…


Is the CNY telling us something important?

While everything that is not Covid or Trump (or both) is getting pushed to the side at the moment, there are actually some really interesting things going on elsewhere that deserve our attention. In particular one trend that seems to Read more…


No escaping the Covid narrative just yet

Just when I thought I was out, they pulled me back in again Michael Corleone. Godfather lll A wise man once said that all life could be explained through one of two prisms, Cricket and the films of the Godfather Read more…


It’s only a rort if you’re not in it

The options expiry on Friday was closely watched thanks to the fun and games in the Gamma markets initiated by Softbank in July and August but was fortunately not too disruptive. A quick recap; by buying a basket of underlying Read more…


Pulling to the sidelines

Sterling dropped, Tech dropped, Oil prices dropped. It all feels like some de-leveraging going on. As the west goes back to work and school (or at least tries to), there is a feeling of money coming off the table. The Read more…


Fear, then Greed, then Fear again

The discovery late last week that the leopards don’t change their spots and that the former derivatives traders from Deutsche Bank who had reinvented themselves at genius tech venture capitalists at the VisionFund of Sotfbank had been up to their Read more…


US Politics

The US Election is now a little over 2 months away and as traders and investors slowly return home from their holidays (or with undue haste if they are trying to get back to the UK) it will increasingly be Read more…


High Viz land

In a post early in the Covid saga, we drew attention to the potential parallels with the Stamford Prison experiment, a true story of a psychological experiment that went badly wrong. Every day the parallels get stronger as the equivalent Read more…


Will their currency become our problem again?

August is normally the start of the quiet period in western markets with many investment managers working from home for a few weeks while the families enjoy a break from school. This year of course that is the norm rather Read more…