Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

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Category: Monday Morning Musings

Mean Reversion and Momentum. Markets have two ‘modes’ – momentum and mean reversion. Last year of course was a huge momentum year for the Macro Traders. On the negative side. They made their huge profits from a short position in Read more…


Monday Morning Musings

We are re-introducing two regular posts, Monday Morning Musings and Friday Market Thinking to book-end the week, on the basis that regular postings are appreciated by readers, as well as providing a good discipline for ourselves. Other posts will continue Read more…


Christmas past..and present

We are spending the days running up to Christmas writing a series of upcoming posts about some of the key structural problems facing Asset management and by extension Wealth Management, to be followed early in the New Year with our Read more…


On the Twelfth day of Christmas

Leaving the quixotic and authoritarian world of the Hong Kong Zero Covidians ahead of schedule on account of (correctly) anticipating the rational response of most western aircrew to the latest prospect of 21 days in Penny’s bay solitary confinement (see Read more…


Fomo plus Lol = OMG

The second half of the year saw accumulated fragility within markets, as a Fear of Missing Out dragged in more retail investors and day traders, many of whom used Lots of Leverage via short dated options to exploit a Lack Read more…


Options trading gives options for trading

Short Term Uncertainty As we run into Thanksgiving, traditionally the ‘end of the year’ for a lot of trading funds, many market signals are being distorted; by options trading and gamma squeezes in equities and by forced unwinding of curve Read more…


Gradually, then Suddenly

A Short note today – just moving into a new office. Mainly a focus on recent developments around some of our developing themes. First is the ongoing story of Evergrande, which has gone viral, with the whole world apparently just Read more…


Mid-Autumn Winds

With China closed for the Mid Autumn Festival holiday, the noise traders are all over Evergrande Contagion as their new narrative, when in fact the bigger short term risk is the gamma positions among market makers in the US post Read more…


Where are the Customers’ jets?

We have been talking about Private Equity since the early days of this blog, but more recently here and here, where we asked an update to the famous Fred Schwed question “Where are all the (Private Equity) Customers’ Private jets? Read more…


The inflationary consequences of Zero..

Hot on the heels of our new Thematic slot at CitiWire, we were asked to do one of our semi regular pieces this weekend for the highly regarded Australian publication AFR. Below we reproduce the draft sent in as the Read more…