making sense of the narrative
January 23, 2023
Mean Reversion and Momentum. Markets have two ‘modes’ – momentum and mean reversion. Last year of course was a huge momentum year for the Macro Traders. On the negative side. They made their huge profits from a short position in Read more…
January 16, 2023
We are re-introducing two regular posts, Monday Morning Musings and Friday Market Thinking to book-end the week, on the basis that regular postings are appreciated by readers, as well as providing a good discipline for ourselves. Other posts will continue Read more…
December 23, 2021
We are spending the days running up to Christmas writing a series of upcoming posts about some of the key structural problems facing Asset management and by extension Wealth Management, to be followed early in the New Year with our Read more…
December 13, 2021
Leaving the quixotic and authoritarian world of the Hong Kong Zero Covidians ahead of schedule on account of (correctly) anticipating the rational response of most western aircrew to the latest prospect of 21 days in Penny’s bay solitary confinement (see Read more…
December 6, 2021
The second half of the year saw accumulated fragility within markets, as a Fear of Missing Out dragged in more retail investors and day traders, many of whom used Lots of Leverage via short dated options to exploit a Lack Read more…
September 28, 2021
A Short note today – just moving into a new office. Mainly a focus on recent developments around some of our developing themes. First is the ongoing story of Evergrande, which has gone viral, with the whole world apparently just Read more…
September 21, 2021
With China closed for the Mid Autumn Festival holiday, the noise traders are all over Evergrande Contagion as their new narrative, when in fact the bigger short term risk is the gamma positions among market makers in the US post Read more…
June 14, 2021
We have been talking about Private Equity since the early days of this blog, but more recently here and here, where we asked an update to the famous Fred Schwed question “Where are all the (Private Equity) Customers’ Private jets? Read more…
May 31, 2021
Hot on the heels of our new Thematic slot at CitiWire, we were asked to do one of our semi regular pieces this weekend for the highly regarded Australian publication AFR. Below we reproduce the draft sent in as the Read more…