Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

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Category: Monday Morning Musings

Crackdown

This post was originally set to go out on Friday, but we thought it worth digesting the narrative being created over the weekend after the ‘storming’ of the Capitol by Trump supporters. What is clear from the hyperbolic – and Read more…


People versus Systems

There is an old (and valuable) piece of advice that says never send an angry email at night and many is the time that a ‘rant’ about something has sat on the ‘draft’ pages of wordpress until the following morning, Read more…


Is RCEP a recipe for a Reset?

The narrative over the last six months was seemingly almost entirely around the twin themes of Covid and the US Election and it looks like November will come in as a really strong month in Global Equities, principally because the Read more…


The 5 C’s. A Great (Portfolio) Reset?

Global Equities have finally clawed back their total returns relative to Global Bonds and while there is no sign of the theoretical risk free rate approaching the true cost of capital anytime soon, investors accepting nominal inflation are looking at Read more…


Due Diligence…

One lesson of proper risk management is that when something with a meaningful short term downside and a non zero probability of happening is dismissed out of hand, we should be wary. Such is the case right now with risk Read more…


Inflation is about Balance sheets.

The following is based on an article submitted to the Australian Financial Review, hence the bias towards Australia and UK in the commentary. Their site is behind paywall and the following is also unedited (by them). We have long used Read more…


One world two systems

Since the Global Financial Crisis, the west has slowly woken up to the fact that China does not intend to play entirely by their rules. It has adapted its centralised approach to allow for market prices to send signals about Read more…


Is the noise obscuring the signal?

Nate Silver, the political pundit wrote a bestselling book in the wake of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis called the Signal and the Noise, with the subtitle ‘Why so many predictions fail, and some don’t”. The book made two important Read more…


Is the CNY telling us something important?

While everything that is not Covid or Trump (or both) is getting pushed to the side at the moment, there are actually some really interesting things going on elsewhere that deserve our attention. In particular one trend that seems to Read more…


No escaping the Covid narrative just yet

Just when I thought I was out, they pulled me back in again Michael Corleone. Godfather lll A wise man once said that all life could be explained through one of two prisms, Cricket and the films of the Godfather Read more…