Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

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Category: Monday Morning Musings

Where are the Customers’ jets?

We have been talking about Private Equity since the early days of this blog, but more recently here and here, where we asked an update to the famous Fred Schwed question “Where are all the (Private Equity) Customers’ Private jets? Read more…


The inflationary consequences of Zero..

Hot on the heels of our new Thematic slot at CitiWire, we were asked to do one of our semi regular pieces this weekend for the highly regarded Australian publication AFR. Below we reproduce the draft sent in as the Read more…


Your Currency, Our Problem

It looks like the ‘don’t trust the dollar’ crowd have switched from Crypto to Gold, which is going up as the others go down., but there are other forces at play. Crypto is a challenge to both monetary and fiscal Read more…


Long Short Duration and Short Long Duration

Equity Markets recovered at the end of last week in what looked like a classic ‘buy the dips’ bounce as medium and long term investors moved in to take advantage of some deleveraging and forced selling by the short term Read more…


Simple Demand and Supply

Last Friday’s Non Farm Payrolls were seen by markets as ‘weak’ and supportive of a ‘no inflation scenario’ leading to a sell off in the US$. However, in our view, this is 180 degrees the wrong way around. The lack Read more…


IRL v WFH

Short term Uncertainty and Medium Term Risks While we continue to puzzle over official pronouncements on the pandemic, markets are nevertheless thinking about growth, inflation and asset allocation. One of the issues challenging asset allocators in particular at the moment Read more…


Whiskey and Car Keys

The following is the text of an article submitted to Australian Financial Review – albeit with a title added by us. We do this on a regular basis, but since it is behind a paywall many of our readers can Read more…


Arch – Egos? We like to look for nominative determinism where we can find it, so to see that the over-leveraged US Hedge Fund that was forced to aggressively de-leverage on Friday was called ArchEgos was too good to miss. Read more…


Buying which dip?

We like to think of the market moving in a variety of ‘herds’, with the opportunities for the biggest herd, the long term investor, being presented by the behaviours of the other two, the Asset Allocators and the short term Read more…


The Great Bond Reset?

The post below is the outline text sent for an article in the Australian Financial Review (AFR) looking at the triple threat faced by bond markets. As our recent posts have suggested, we see Bonds as the biggest short and Read more…