Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

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Category: Politics

The Rule of Five Foot Six

One wag recently pointed out that the Rule of Six in the UK seems to have become the Rule of Six people; Boris, Gove, Cummings, Hancock, Rishi and Sturgeon. However, as the house of commons prepares to vote on the Read more…


We are in a real life Stamford Prison Experiment

One of the most famous chapters in psychology involves what is  known as the Stamford Prison experiment, conducted by a Stamford Psychology Professor Zimbardo back in in 1971. In the experiment a group of volunteers were randomly split into two Read more…


The consensus being challenged..

Having highlighted the role of Professor Neil Ferguson and the team of catastrophists at Imperial College in the 2001 Foot and Mouth Disease response (Oxford versus Imperial) it was interesting to see the article in the Daily Telegraph on Saturday Read more…


Lessons from FMD 2001

When we see an unexpected event in markets, there is a tendency to quickly check ‘What Happened Last Time?’ (WHLT). In fact, WHLT is the basis for the majority of financial and other models generally, although we give it fancier Read more…


Politics and Markets

Sterling is rallying for market reasons more than politics, but the DXY is rolling over suggesting a possible rotation back to non US Equities is coming. This also makes sense as and when Wall Street starts to at least partially price in Elizabeth Warren. While almost all her declared policies are bad for the S&P, it is her stance on fracking that threatens a genuine financial crisis and a mortal blow to almost the whole US ‘alternatives’ sector (click on header for more).