making sense of the narrative
July 18, 2022
The rally in the 10 year bond and the selloff in Commodity prices have been taken by many pundits as ‘Predictions’ of future economic activity, i.e a collapse in demand, a recession and a reduction in the threat of inflation. Read more…
October 6, 2020
One wag recently pointed out that the Rule of Six in the UK seems to have become the Rule of Six people; Boris, Gove, Cummings, Hancock, Rishi and Sturgeon. However, as the house of commons prepares to vote on the Read more…
April 13, 2020
One of the most famous chapters in psychology involves what is known as the Stamford Prison experiment, conducted by a Stamford Psychology Professor Zimbardo back in in 1971. In the experiment a group of volunteers were randomly split into two Read more…
March 29, 2020
Having highlighted the role of Professor Neil Ferguson and the team of catastrophists at Imperial College in the 2001 Foot and Mouth Disease response (Oxford versus Imperial) it was interesting to see the article in the Daily Telegraph on Saturday Read more…
March 24, 2020
When we see an unexpected event in markets, there is a tendency to quickly check ‘What Happened Last Time?’ (WHLT). In fact, WHLT is the basis for the majority of financial and other models generally, although we give it fancier Read more…
October 22, 2019
Sterling is rallying for market reasons more than politics, but the DXY is rolling over suggesting a possible rotation back to non US Equities is coming. This also makes sense as and when Wall Street starts to at least partially price in Elizabeth Warren. While almost all her declared policies are bad for the S&P, it is her stance on fracking that threatens a genuine financial crisis and a mortal blow to almost the whole US ‘alternatives’ sector (click on header for more).