Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative


Category: Risk and Uncertainty

Risk Management and Magical Thinking

“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” Mark Twain A key part of dealing with the narrative driven world that we live in is recognising that Read more…

False positives and False certainty

While notionally about Covid (isn’t everything at the moment?), this is more about data, uncertainty and risk, ie the key elements of sensible investing. In their excellent work on Radical Uncertainty, former Bank of England Governor, Mervyn King and journalist Read more…

CoronaVirus and Markets

Showing great journalistic foresight, my friends at the Australian Financial Review asked early last week if I would mind making my regular monthly column about the CoronaVirus rather than the previously agreed topic. This I duly did, here. Of course Read more…