Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

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Category: W.W.W.

Power Plays

We talk of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and in doing so note that economic and political power has always coincided with the ability to gain access to the essential raw materials and components of the time – coal in the Read more…


Build Back Better..But for Whom?

Many observers will have spotted the sudden (and repeated) use of the expression “Build back better” in both the UK and the US. We see these moments as the time to learn and to improve on the world that went Read more…


From Dad’s Army to Blackadder goes forth

When governments first started responding to the Covid 19 pandemic by locking down economies and using War metaphors, we suggested that it all had the air of the British Comedy series Dad’s Army; with the Media acting as Corporal Jones, Read more…


Going to build a Great Big Beautiful (Fire and Tariff)Wall

The ‘Clean network to safeguard US Assets’ aka the new Firewall being proudly touted by Mike Pompeo and as discussed on the blog here last month is likely to have some important and largely unintended consequences. The announcement this week Read more…


The Fed and the shadow banking system

The following is an extended version of an article recently published in the Australian Financial Review (firewalled sadly) , but I have also included some longer discussion about the role of Money Market Funds in transforming a ‘normal’ financial market Read more…


Logical Fallacies, Behavioural Finance and Covid-19

Our whole approach to Market-Thinking is based around the psychological behaviour of markets and trying to make sense and anticipate the behaviours of our three key ‘tribes’ – traders, asset allocators and long term investors. Much of the analysis we Read more…


Hong Kong

Today is National Day in Hong Kong and the first day of life under the new security law. The western online newspapers are full of articles about ‘the end of Hong Kong’ and the below the line comments are increasingly Read more…


They have plans for your savings

The quote attributed Winston Churchill about never letting a good crisis go to waste came as he and others were looking to set up the UN after the Second World War and was popularised more recently by Obama’s chief of Read more…


What now is the point of Rating Agencies?

Never fight the Fed as they say and yesterday we saw a subtle tweak in their Credit Buying programme that has essentially made the Fed the buyer of last resort of the entire US corporate Bond market. This proved to Read more…


And for your next trick?

Fund Managers are sometimes referred to in the terminology of the philosopher Isaiah Berlin as being either foxes – who know many things – or hedgehogs – who know one big thing. Investors should perhaps be particularly careful when a Read more…