Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

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Category: W.W.W.

After a year of bad policy, the risk is that the Central Bankers say ‘hold my beer’

The dirty little secret of Monetary Policy in much of the west is that it has actually long been really a form of fiscal policy. When you have a population with large amounts of floating rate debt, changing the cost Read more…


One door closes…

As the twittersphere morphs from being experts on infectious diseases to experts on Geo-politics and ‘The Great Game’, it is worth remembering that it is an assessment of what policy will most likely be enacted by those in a position Read more…


The non-Zero risks of Zero Risk policies

The Short Term Uncertainties for markets remain about Covid, sometimes, as this week, a ‘panic’ about the virus itself, but mainly about the economy-damaging Zero Covid policies being pursued in ‘the Rest of the West’ (i.e Europe, UK, Canada, Australia Read more…


Life in the fast (Zil) Lane

The enduring image for many of the hypocrisy of the ruling elite in the Soviet Union was the Zil lane – the fact that Politburo members were whisked in Zil limousines past the ‘peasants’ stuck in the very traffic jams Read more…


Those Green Jobs…Bastiat had it right

One of the mantras from Politicians of all persuasions about the Build Back Better campaign is that in addition to ‘saving the planet’ it is going to provide ‘thousands of Green Jobs’. Without wishing to sound churlish, a job is Read more…


Bread and Circuses

There is a meaningful risk emerging that the quiescence of the public so far in response to lockdown is going to erupt into civil unrest over the summer as the bread and circuses employed so far are no longer enough Read more…


No Profit, No Bid

The retreat of leveraged retail from Equity markets is leaving a lot of ‘concept stocks’ friendless, (no profit, no bid as Bob Marley almost said) but this looks to us more like 1987 than 2000, despite the noise and nonsense Read more…


One world, two ‘realities’

The growth of AI in both financial markets and society as a whole is skewing our behaviour towards ‘left brain’ characteristics of transactions, data and goal seeking and away from right brain characteristics of analysis, interpretation and context. Computers need Read more…


Trojan Horses and Slippery Slopes

An under-rated risk for western economies is that in pushing back against the centralisation of state power under the Health Crisis, voters will unintentionally now allow an even greater grab of power by different parts of the state under the Read more…


The illiquidity Trap

There is a corner of the FT that continues to do sterling work as financial journalists, having alerted us to, inter-alia, Wirecard, Greensill, Softbank, (especially with We Work but also some of the other egregious actions of the former Deutsche Read more…