Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

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Category: W.W.W.

One world, two ‘realities’

The growth of AI in both financial markets and society as a whole is skewing our behaviour towards ‘left brain’ characteristics of transactions, data and goal seeking and away from right brain characteristics of analysis, interpretation and context. Computers need Read more…


Trojan Horses and Slippery Slopes

An under-rated risk for western economies is that in pushing back against the centralisation of state power under the Health Crisis, voters will unintentionally now allow an even greater grab of power by different parts of the state under the Read more…


The illiquidity Trap

There is a corner of the FT that continues to do sterling work as financial journalists, having alerted us to, inter-alia, Wirecard, Greensill, Softbank, (especially with We Work but also some of the other egregious actions of the former Deutsche Read more…


Awkward Thought Experiments

We live in a world in which we are increasingly ‘given the opinions we are supposed to hold’. One antidote to this is to apply the logic of received opinion number one to situation number two. This results in some Read more…


Concentration Risk.

As discussed, the sell off in Bond Markets is also clearing out the trading funds and day traders’ stocks, as they all cut leverage. The short term traders may yet be buyers-on -dips, but we suspect that they have packed Read more…


A switch to half full?

Is the Glass half empty or half full? It depends on whether you are pouring, or drinking. Bill Cosby The biggest uncertainty in markets remains Covid Policy (as opposed to the virus itself) since it defines the underlying economic situation. Read more…


A Peg Protection Parallel to Prevent further Pan(dem)ic

One of the (few) advantages of getting older is the benefit of experience, if not always wisdom. As such we sometimes spot patterns that are not necessarily picked up by historical graphs or datasets, based on ‘lived experience’. Thus in Read more…


Aussie Dollar moves from Commodity to Currency

The following is based on an article submitted to the Australian Financial Review for this weekend. As such it obviously has an Australian angle, but one that is also important for investors understanding how the new RCEP trade bloc is Read more…


Politics and Business

While many investors and company analysts may think themselves puzzled by the current behaviour of politicians, they really shouldn’t be, for in many senses it is exactly the same behavior regularly demonstrated by the senior management in large corporations. Indeed, Read more…


Logical Fallacy Bingo

In the long run markets are a weighting machine but in the short run they are a voting machine*Benjamin Graham *although probably not a Dominion one. Another way of putting this might be “In the long run, markets are driven Read more…