Groundhog Day

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February 2, 2021
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So Punxsutawney Phil saw his own shadow but then went back into lockdown, which means (to no-one’s surprise) another six weeks of lockdown and mask wearing. Frankly he is as informed as any of the other government ‘experts’ on this. Six weeks is just about long enough to leave the UK and go via some third country (like Kenya) and get to Hong Kong in time for 3 weeks (you pay) Hotel solitary confinement and thus get back to the office in person in time for ‘Spring’. Hmm.

Source Wikipedia Chris Flook

With the UK government now aiming to adopt similar wildly unnecessary measures it would mean Fineas Fogg would struggle to go around the world in Eighty Days in 2021 – indeed if he followed the route in the book he would spend 87 days in quarantine – even if he somehow had Australian and New Zealand citizenship to get in there in the first place. There’s progress for you.

Around the world in 87 days of Quarantine

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The X Factor

This was not about Left versus Right, it was about a generational shift, from the Boomers to Gen X. This will then also move the children of the Boomers - the Millennials - down in favour of the next generation, the Zoomers of Gen Z. The economy and the markets will now shift in line with their traits and behaviours.

Pause, Rewind, Repay

The upcoming Election has been an excuse for markets to hit pause. Experience tells us that the best way to trade the 'reaction' is usually to fade it, as it will reflect pre-positioning around risk and that the initial sell-off or rally is not the start of a new directional trend. We suspect with Hedge Fund 'year end' coming up soon at Thanksgiving that traders will be flattening books, while asset allocators and lo0ng term investors, while perhaps putting some precautionary cash back in to existing trades, will wait for more clarity.

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