Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

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Tag: China

January Market Thinking

Traditionally, Year Ahead pieces tend to take the form of a laundry list of predictions about ‘key market variables’, alongside some narrative to support why these might be slightly above, or slightly below, the consensus. Sometimes, the predictions are deliberately Read more…


All your Savings are belong to US

Sometimes it is annoying/alarming to be right. As we noted in Trojan Horses and slippery slopes, the takeover of private sector savings to serve public sector policies is continuing apace. the seemingly unstoppable ESG bandwagon may well represent a Trojan Read more…


Market Thinking November

In Equity Markets, the near 5% rise in October effectively reversed the equivalent selloff in September as the market mechanics unwound, while bond markets saw the month close with sharply higher volatility and some very aggressive flattening of the yield Read more…


COPs and Robber Barons

As COP26 turns into a sort of Glastonbury for ESG funds, nobody seems to have noticed that all the big energy users have already committed to ‘new nuclear’ already and thus it is the collection of Robber Barons from Finance, Read more…


Market Thinking October

Two sides to Every Story September turned out to be true to type, increased risk aversion in and around the triple witching mid month led to a spike in the price of put options (expressed as a higher VIX) and Read more…


Australian Financial Review

For those with a subscription, the link to the latest AFR piece is below. What you thought you knew about investing in China is wrong The reality is that under Xi Jinping, the where and how of investing in China Read more…


George talks his book..

In a rare sighting, George Soros appeared in the Financial Times yesterday warning investors about investing in China. (The link is behind a paywall, but it appears in multiple other places, including here). This was interesting for a number of Read more…


Opening the ‘blind eye’…

Short Term Uncertainties As Equities and Commodities moved higher, western investors in Chinese VIE structures got a shock as one of the hitherto ignored risks to the sector (change in Chinese policy) suddenly appeared. The other risks – taxation and Read more…


Front Running

The Bond market is trying to front run the Fed (as usual), while traders trying to front run China are finding a more determined adversary. As we used to see with FX markets, monetary authorities will intervene to push markets Read more…


One world two systems

Since the Global Financial Crisis, the west has slowly woken up to the fact that China does not intend to play entirely by their rules. It has adapted its centralised approach to allow for market prices to send signals about Read more…