Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

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Tag: China

Market Thinking October

Two sides to Every Story September turned out to be true to type, increased risk aversion in and around the triple witching mid month led to a spike in the price of put options (expressed as a higher VIX) and Read more…


Australian Financial Review

For those with a subscription, the link to the latest AFR piece is below. What you thought you knew about investing in China is wrong The reality is that under Xi Jinping, the where and how of investing in China Read more…


George talks his book..

In a rare sighting, George Soros appeared in the Financial Times yesterday warning investors about investing in China. (The link is behind a paywall, but it appears in multiple other places, including here). This was interesting for a number of Read more…


Opening the ‘blind eye’…

Short Term Uncertainties As Equities and Commodities moved higher, western investors in Chinese VIE structures got a shock as one of the hitherto ignored risks to the sector (change in Chinese policy) suddenly appeared. The other risks – taxation and Read more…


Front Running

The Bond market is trying to front run the Fed (as usual), while traders trying to front run China are finding a more determined adversary. As we used to see with FX markets, monetary authorities will intervene to push markets Read more…


One world two systems

Since the Global Financial Crisis, the west has slowly woken up to the fact that China does not intend to play entirely by their rules. It has adapted its centralised approach to allow for market prices to send signals about Read more…


Is the CNY telling us something important?

While everything that is not Covid or Trump (or both) is getting pushed to the side at the moment, there are actually some really interesting things going on elsewhere that deserve our attention. In particular one trend that seems to Read more…


Back to 2015?

There were shades of 2015 in the Chinese markets this week as margin financing came roaring back in for China’s re-boot of the ‘can’t lose’ mentality recently adopted by the RobinHood day traders in the US – and still frankly Read more…


China tells Pompeo, “I know what you did last Summer”

Today’s announcements from China need to be seen in the context of the last two years of steadily intensifying interference in Chinese affairs by the US as part of the new Cold War. At the 13th National People’s Congress we Read more…


Made in EU 2025?

As the US seems to be turning into late 1980s Japan, an Enterprise Owned State (EOS) becoming more isolationist as asset prices and the currency soar – and we all know how that ends – it strikes me that there Read more…