Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

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Tag: Commodities

Avoiding Confirmation Bias

The widespread consensus in the Western Media is that EverGrande is going to crash the Chinese Economy and that the Australia/US/UK defense pact is ‘good news’. Short term traders are backing this, but we would suggest that neither of these Read more…


Front Running

The Bond market is trying to front run the Fed (as usual), while traders trying to front run China are finding a more determined adversary. As we used to see with FX markets, monetary authorities will intervene to push markets Read more…


Simple Demand and Supply

Last Friday’s Non Farm Payrolls were seen by markets as ‘weak’ and supportive of a ‘no inflation scenario’ leading to a sell off in the US$. However, in our view, this is 180 degrees the wrong way around. The lack Read more…


Market Thinking May

A Pause that Refreshes… Market movements in April might best be described as an apparent ‘reversal of the reversal’ as many of the winners of the inflation/reflation trade that began in October appeared to sell off while the ‘losers’ rallied. Read more…


Friday Market Thinking

The S&P continues to grind higher, while the Shanghai Composite remains supported on its short term indicators, up 20% over the last three months. The offshore Yuan (CNY) is at its lowest (strongest) level against the US$ since March, while Read more…


Will their currency become our problem again?

August is normally the start of the quiet period in western markets with many investment managers working from home for a few weeks while the families enjoy a break from school. This year of course that is the norm rather Read more…