Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

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Tag: Covid

January Market Thinking

Traditionally, Year Ahead pieces tend to take the form of a laundry list of predictions about ‘key market variables’, alongside some narrative to support why these might be slightly above, or slightly below, the consensus. Sometimes, the predictions are deliberately Read more…


Bull markets and Bullet Trains..

After a weak September, Equity markets have recovered in the last few weeks as buy on the dips seems to have kicked back in (as well as some momentum chasing or buy on the rips) for a strong looking seasonal Read more…


Market Thinking September

The back-to-school-trade in markets is not to look at the short term forecasting uncertainties around the Delta Variant of Covid, but rather to consider the medium and longer term implications of the latest twists in the New Cold War and Read more…


Market Thinking August

The only thing normal about this summer seems to be the seasonality around markets as they increase risk aversion in the face of of light volumes and low liquidity. While we should ignore short-term traders as they try and make Read more…


Bread and Circuses

There is a meaningful risk emerging that the quiescence of the public so far in response to lockdown is going to erupt into civil unrest over the summer as the bread and circuses employed so far are no longer enough Read more…


Another Spring, still not sprung

Almost a year ago when we wrote Spring but not sprung we were worried that the government was too risk averse, but never thought we would still be in lockdown as a second spring arrives with most of the West Read more…


A switch to half full?

Is the Glass half empty or half full? It depends on whether you are pouring, or drinking. Bill Cosby The biggest uncertainty in markets remains Covid Policy (as opposed to the virus itself) since it defines the underlying economic situation. Read more…


A Peg Protection Parallel to Prevent further Pan(dem)ic

One of the (few) advantages of getting older is the benefit of experience, if not always wisdom. As such we sometimes spot patterns that are not necessarily picked up by historical graphs or datasets, based on ‘lived experience’. Thus in Read more…


Can the Media live without ‘The Donald’?

The US Media are struggling a bit with the significant reduction in Trump content in recent days. As noted back in 2016, his carefully curated character of “The Donald” would send, often outrageous, tweets at all hours of the day Read more…


One world two systems

Since the Global Financial Crisis, the west has slowly woken up to the fact that China does not intend to play entirely by their rules. It has adapted its centralised approach to allow for market prices to send signals about Read more…