Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

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Tag: Crypto

June Market Thinking

Slightly More Confident The market fall this year has been steady and relentless rather than a panic crash, and last month the Sell in May mantra cut through and markets switched to bear market behaviour of selling rallies and not Read more…


2016 Redux?

The markets appear to be having something of a re-run of early 2016, probably the last time that they worried about a tightening cycle. An early January rotation out of the MegaCaps into value and cyclicals by institutional investors on Read more…


January Market Thinking

Traditionally, Year Ahead pieces tend to take the form of a laundry list of predictions about ‘key market variables’, alongside some narrative to support why these might be slightly above, or slightly below, the consensus. Sometimes, the predictions are deliberately Read more…


New Themes and New Players

There is definitely a ‘profit taking’ feel around things at the moment, as Oil and Crypto both sell off and Gold and the Dollar rally. New players are not only moving into trading Crypto, but also in owning parts of Read more…


Welcome to the Metaverse

A digital coin that doesn’t change in value (up or down) is the missing component that has so far prevented the online world of internet 3.0 transitioning from an entertainment space to a genuine alternative Economy. However, Central Bank Digital Read more…


Your Currency, Our Problem

It looks like the ‘don’t trust the dollar’ crowd have switched from Crypto to Gold, which is going up as the others go down., but there are other forces at play. Crypto is a challenge to both monetary and fiscal Read more…


Bread and Circuses

There is a meaningful risk emerging that the quiescence of the public so far in response to lockdown is going to erupt into civil unrest over the summer as the bread and circuses employed so far are no longer enough Read more…


Simple Demand and Supply

Last Friday’s Non Farm Payrolls were seen by markets as ‘weak’ and supportive of a ‘no inflation scenario’ leading to a sell off in the US$. However, in our view, this is 180 degrees the wrong way around. The lack Read more…