Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

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Tag: inflation

Has Inflation Peaked?

One of the most important questions facing investors is not inflation per se, but perceptions of inflation. The Fed is focused on inflation expectations in setting wages, while markets are focussed on the Fed’s perceptions of those expectations and the Read more…


Market Thinking April

 Unforced Errors Overview April marks the start of the second quarter as well as the start of the new financial year for many and while the Ukraine crisis has thrown up new challenges – not least in eating as well Read more…


The lamps are going out..

Two of the main drivers to low inflation over the last decade – cheap exports from China and low energy prices from Russia – are both disappearing, meaning at the very least a reset higher in the overall price level. Read more…


The inflationary consequences of Zero..

Hot on the heels of our new Thematic slot at CitiWire, we were asked to do one of our semi regular pieces this weekend for the highly regarded Australian publication AFR. Below we reproduce the draft sent in as the Read more…


Simple Demand and Supply

Last Friday’s Non Farm Payrolls were seen by markets as ‘weak’ and supportive of a ‘no inflation scenario’ leading to a sell off in the US$. However, in our view, this is 180 degrees the wrong way around. The lack Read more…


Market Thinking May

A Pause that Refreshes… Market movements in April might best be described as an apparent ‘reversal of the reversal’ as many of the winners of the inflation/reflation trade that began in October appeared to sell off while the ‘losers’ rallied. Read more…


Inflation is about Balance sheets.

The following is based on an article submitted to the Australian Financial Review, hence the bias towards Australia and UK in the commentary. Their site is behind paywall and the following is also unedited (by them). We have long used Read more…