Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

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Tag: Market Mechanics

Is US tax driving Chinese stocks?

While Asian investors may have been waiting for Mid October and the end of the CCP conference for ‘something to happen’, US investors in China may have been waiting to see if there was any prospect of a bounce before Read more…


Fear of being out replaced by fear of being in (anything but $ cash)

The most crowded trade in markets at the moment is $ cash. Fear rather than greed is dominating sentiment for both retail and professional investors and, with yields approaching 4%, cash is back as an asset class once more. Of Read more…


October Market Thinking

September exceeded even its own reputation as a terrible month for markets, with equities and bonds both down heavily, as well as commodities, and almost the only thing going up (apart from volatility) was the US$. The fact that these Read more…


$ to everyone : “It’s not you. It’s me”

A new government and a crisis mini-Budget are perfect catalysts for macro traders to double down on existing large and already highly profitable strategies and to produce persuasive narratives to back it up. Thus, going into month and quarter end Read more…


August Market Thinking

Are we there yet? Markets are asking the same question as bored children stuck in a long delay at Dover “Are we there yet?” The second half of July saw yet another bear market rally and while we are not Read more…


July Market Thinking

Markets are breaking Free. Governments have been trying to fix markets for over a decade but reality is now biting. This, in fact, is the real “Great Reset’. Free Markets are not about political systems but are those that are Read more…


Market Thinking November

In Equity Markets, the near 5% rise in October effectively reversed the equivalent selloff in September as the market mechanics unwound, while bond markets saw the month close with sharply higher volatility and some very aggressive flattening of the yield Read more…


Market Thinking October

Two sides to Every Story September turned out to be true to type, increased risk aversion in and around the triple witching mid month led to a spike in the price of put options (expressed as a higher VIX) and Read more…


Mid-Autumn Winds

With China closed for the Mid Autumn Festival holiday, the noise traders are all over Evergrande Contagion as their new narrative, when in fact the bigger short term risk is the gamma positions among market makers in the US post Read more…


Long Short Duration and Short Long Duration

Equity Markets recovered at the end of last week in what looked like a classic ‘buy the dips’ bounce as medium and long term investors moved in to take advantage of some deleveraging and forced selling by the short term Read more…