Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

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Tag: Market Mechanics

Market Thinking November

In Equity Markets, the near 5% rise in October effectively reversed the equivalent selloff in September as the market mechanics unwound, while bond markets saw the month close with sharply higher volatility and some very aggressive flattening of the yield Read more…


Market Thinking October

Two sides to Every Story September turned out to be true to type, increased risk aversion in and around the triple witching mid month led to a spike in the price of put options (expressed as a higher VIX) and Read more…


Mid-Autumn Winds

With China closed for the Mid Autumn Festival holiday, the noise traders are all over Evergrande Contagion as their new narrative, when in fact the bigger short term risk is the gamma positions among market makers in the US post Read more…


Long Short Duration and Short Long Duration

Equity Markets recovered at the end of last week in what looked like a classic ‘buy the dips’ bounce as medium and long term investors moved in to take advantage of some deleveraging and forced selling by the short term Read more…


No Profit, No Bid

The retreat of leveraged retail from Equity markets is leaving a lot of ‘concept stocks’ friendless, (no profit, no bid as Bob Marley almost said) but this looks to us more like 1987 than 2000, despite the noise and nonsense Read more…


Market Thinking May

A Pause that Refreshes… Market movements in April might best be described as an apparent ‘reversal of the reversal’ as many of the winners of the inflation/reflation trade that began in October appeared to sell off while the ‘losers’ rallied. Read more…


Friday Market Thinking

One Regime, Two Parties The Vice Presidential Debate this week was an overwhelming victory for Kamala Harris. Or Mike Pence. It rather depended on which side you asked. For the small number of pro Trump media outlets, Harris was exposed Read more…


Fear, then Greed, then Fear again

The discovery late last week that the leopards don’t change their spots and that the former derivatives traders from Deutsche Bank who had reinvented themselves at genius tech venture capitalists at the VisionFund of Sotfbank had been up to their Read more…