Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

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Tag: Model Portfolios

December Market Thinking

With the end to Mutual Fund tax-related selling in October and the closing out of the CTA hedge fund short positions ahead of Thanksgiving in November, the equity markets finally managed to put together two back to back positive months, Read more…


Model Portfolios – Global Themes

In our last post on Model Portfolios*, we considered looking at Global Equities through the lens of Factors – Momentum, Min Volatility, Value, Quality and Size. This allowed us to achieve diversification, while Dynamic allocation between the factors allowed us Read more…


Model Portfolios – Global Bonds

We are making a series of posts about our various model portfolios, starting with Global Bonds. The Bond Portfolio shown here is key to what drove our earlier views on not owning bonds at the end of last year (see Read more…


Model Portfolios- March

Market Thinking Model Portfolios use the principles of behavioral finance within a systematic risk management framework to deliver a dynamic asset allocation process for Absolute Return products. We do not use derivatives, seeking instead to reduce downside risk via the Read more…


2016 Redux?

The markets appear to be having something of a re-run of early 2016, probably the last time that they worried about a tightening cycle. An early January rotation out of the MegaCaps into value and cyclicals by institutional investors on Read more…


Market Thinking September

The back-to-school-trade in markets is not to look at the short term forecasting uncertainties around the Delta Variant of Covid, but rather to consider the medium and longer term implications of the latest twists in the New Cold War and Read more…


Drilling Down

If we only look at the top-down numbers for Asset Classes we risk missing the underlying stories and information that is ‘out there’. Thus while April saw something of ‘A reversal of the reversal, as we discussed in the May Read more…


Markets in Q1

In reviewing the behaviour of markets in the first quarter we can use the prism of our Model Portfolios as well as the general benchmarks to try and capture the important elements of what happened, partly for review, but also Read more…


Model Portfolios 2020

Overview – A good year for the Roses The rollercoaster performance of markets was a baptism of fire for the Model Portfolios we were actively running over the last year and a strong challenge to the concept of Dynamic Asset Read more…


November Market Thinking

The US Election looks to have gone to Biden, even though it also looks like it is going to the courts. In some ways, what is more important is that the failure of the widely predicted ‘Blue Wave’ to appear Read more…