Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

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Tag: New Cold War

Slowly, then all at once

The Hemmingway quote about the two ways to go bankrupt; “first slowly, then all at once” springs to mind when looking at the situation in Ukraine. The country has been falling apart slowly over the last seven years in the Read more…


Calling Elliot Carver

As the rhetoric for War in the South China Sea is ramped up almost 25 years after Bond villain Elliot Carver tried to do it to sell more newspapers, the good news is that, when looked at properly, China’s apparent Read more…


Market Thinking September

The back-to-school-trade in markets is not to look at the short term forecasting uncertainties around the Delta Variant of Covid, but rather to consider the medium and longer term implications of the latest twists in the New Cold War and Read more…


Australian Financial Review

For those with a subscription, the link to the latest AFR piece is below. What you thought you knew about investing in China is wrong The reality is that under Xi Jinping, the where and how of investing in China Read more…


A switch to half full?

Is the Glass half empty or half full? It depends on whether you are pouring, or drinking. Bill Cosby The biggest uncertainty in markets remains Covid Policy (as opposed to the virus itself) since it defines the underlying economic situation. Read more…


Power Plays

We talk of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and in doing so note that economic and political power has always coincided with the ability to gain access to the essential raw materials and components of the time – coal in the Read more…


It’s only a rort if you’re not in it

The options expiry on Friday was closely watched thanks to the fun and games in the Gamma markets initiated by Softbank in July and August but was fortunately not too disruptive. A quick recap; by buying a basket of underlying Read more…


Going to build a Great Big Beautiful (Fire and Tariff)Wall

The ‘Clean network to safeguard US Assets’ aka the new Firewall being proudly touted by Mike Pompeo and as discussed on the blog here last month is likely to have some important and largely unintended consequences. The announcement this week Read more…


US Politics

The US Election is now a little over 2 months away and as traders and investors slowly return home from their holidays (or with undue haste if they are trying to get back to the UK) it will increasingly be Read more…


China tells Pompeo, “I know what you did last Summer”

Today’s announcements from China need to be seen in the context of the last two years of steadily intensifying interference in Chinese affairs by the US as part of the new Cold War. At the 13th National People’s Congress we Read more…