Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

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Tag: politics

A very British Coup

The marvellous British word ‘defenestration’ is seemingly only ever used when a politician is metaphorically thrown out of the proverbial window and as such will doubtless be all over the UK press in the next few days as Chancellor Kwasi Read more…


Market Thinking September

Zero Policies and the Policies of ‘Zero’ With the long summer holidays and so many elections coming up, there is a feeling of Policy Paralysis going on, but also a recognition that this is about to change. In particular, the Read more…


Climbing the Wall of Worry

With the slow days of August coming to a close, markets are watching nervously for the seasonally volatile month of September, especially around the options expiry on September 16th – there is much embedded muscle memory of painful ends to Read more…


August Market Thinking

Are we there yet? Markets are asking the same question as bored children stuck in a long delay at Dover “Are we there yet?” The second half of July saw yet another bear market rally and while we are not Read more…


Prices, Probabilities and Predictions

The rally in the 10 year bond and the selloff in Commodity prices have been taken by many pundits as ‘Predictions’ of future economic activity, i.e a collapse in demand, a recession and a reduction in the threat of inflation. Read more…


Another Spring, still not sprung

Almost a year ago when we wrote Spring but not sprung we were worried that the government was too risk averse, but never thought we would still be in lockdown as a second spring arrives with most of the West Read more…


Has the WHO just given politicians a way out?

The heavy politicisation of Covid in the US Elections is a key reason why we have our fingers crossed that things will calm down after November 3rd, whoever wins. It is clear that the Democrats see it as their best Read more…


Travelling

Posting has been light this week due to travelling back to Europe and subsequent jet lag. A few observations however. No sooner had we posted on the template that Hong Kong provided for the west, both good and bad, than Read more…


The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

The Good news is that Covid-19 is over, for now at least, rates are falling everywhere and excess death measurements reveal that in most countries 2020 has been ‘nothing unusual’ We know that while there have undoubtedly been many failings, Read more…