Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

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Tag: US Politics

Risk Management and Magical Thinking

“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” Mark Twain A key part of dealing with the narrative driven world that we live in is recognising that Read more…


November Market Thinking

The US Election looks to have gone to Biden, even though it also looks like it is going to the courts. In some ways, what is more important is that the failure of the widely predicted ‘Blue Wave’ to appear Read more…


Are short term markets giving us a glimpse of longer term trends?

Market Thinking looks for how the behaviour of short term traders can spill over into the actions of medium term asset allocators and ultimately long term investors. Right now, we are watching the behaviour of the Currency and Commodity markets Read more…


Is the CNY telling us something important?

While everything that is not Covid or Trump (or both) is getting pushed to the side at the moment, there are actually some really interesting things going on elsewhere that deserve our attention. In particular one trend that seems to Read more…


The importance of battleground states

Last week we discussed how the Biden/ Harris ticket is actually the establishment proposition, a kind of ‘Blue Pill’ offered to the American people so that they can pretend that the world that Donald Trump has revealed doesn’t really exist. Read more…


US Politics

The US Election is now a little over 2 months away and as traders and investors slowly return home from their holidays (or with undue haste if they are trying to get back to the UK) it will increasingly be Read more…


Politics and Markets

Sterling is rallying for market reasons more than politics, but the DXY is rolling over suggesting a possible rotation back to non US Equities is coming. This also makes sense as and when Wall Street starts to at least partially price in Elizabeth Warren. While almost all her declared policies are bad for the S&P, it is her stance on fracking that threatens a genuine financial crisis and a mortal blow to almost the whole US ‘alternatives’ sector (click on header for more).


State Owned Enterprise, or Enterprise Owned State?

For some, the new Cold War between China and the US is about a clash of ideologies, China replacing the Soviet Union as the ideological ‘other’, its failings to be highlighted and indeed exaggerated in order to demonstrate the virtues Read more…