Not as Bad as It Seems…

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March 12, 2020
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As we see another hit to Equities today, I note comments already arriving saying the FTSE100 is now below where it was 20 years ago. However, this (like many things) is not as bad, or indeed what, it might at first seem. For this ignores the importance of dividend income and the power of compound interest.

Consider instead the Chart below, which compares the FTSE with the Total Return Index on the FT All Share.

Long Term Equities are about compound dividends

We can see that while the headline number for the FTSE is now 84% of what it was exactly 20 years ago, the total return index for the All Share is 210% of where it was.

The useful rule of thumb for compounding – the rule of 72, tells us that divide 72 by our yield and it gives the number of years it takes to double your capital. Curently, using the 12 month dividend yield on the FTSE100 it will take 11.5 years to double your money. Sure, they might cut the dividend, (maybe) but if you put it in a 10 year gilt, it would take 303 years.

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The X Factor

This was not about Left versus Right, it was about a generational shift, from the Boomers to Gen X. This will then also move the children of the Boomers - the Millennials - down in favour of the next generation, the Zoomers of Gen Z. The economy and the markets will now shift in line with their traits and behaviours.

Pause, Rewind, Repay

The upcoming Election has been an excuse for markets to hit pause. Experience tells us that the best way to trade the 'reaction' is usually to fade it, as it will reflect pre-positioning around risk and that the initial sell-off or rally is not the start of a new directional trend. We suspect with Hedge Fund 'year end' coming up soon at Thanksgiving that traders will be flattening books, while asset allocators and lo0ng term investors, while perhaps putting some precautionary cash back in to existing trades, will wait for more clarity.

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