Market Thinking

making sense of the narrative

Market Thinking

Market Thinking

J.M Keynes famously noted that “The market can remain irrational much longer than I can remain solvent” and the notion of bubbles and ‘irrational exuberance’ is built in to much observation and commentary on markets, leading to embedded positions of Read more…


From Dad’s Army to Blackadder goes forth

When governments first started responding to the Covid 19 pandemic by locking down economies and using War metaphors, we suggested that it all had the air of the British Comedy series Dad’s Army; with the Media acting as Corporal Jones, Read more…


It’s only a rort if you’re not in it

The options expiry on Friday was closely watched thanks to the fun and games in the Gamma markets initiated by Softbank in July and August but was fortunately not too disruptive. A quick recap; by buying a basket of underlying Read more…


Going to build a Great Big Beautiful (Fire and Tariff)Wall

The ‘Clean network to safeguard US Assets’ aka the new Firewall being proudly touted by Mike Pompeo and as discussed on the blog here last month is likely to have some important and largely unintended consequences. The announcement this week Read more…


Pulling to the sidelines

Sterling dropped, Tech dropped, Oil prices dropped. It all feels like some de-leveraging going on. As the west goes back to work and school (or at least tries to), there is a feeling of money coming off the table. The Read more…


The Fed and the shadow banking system

The following is an extended version of an article recently published in the Australian Financial Review (firewalled sadly) , but I have also included some longer discussion about the role of Money Market Funds in transforming a ‘normal’ financial market Read more…


Fear, then Greed, then Fear again

The discovery late last week that the leopards don’t change their spots and that the former derivatives traders from Deutsche Bank who had reinvented themselves at genius tech venture capitalists at the VisionFund of Sotfbank had been up to their Read more…


SoftBank? Again?

In market terminology a ‘Whale’ is a big fish that dominates markets for a while. Initially nobody knows who they are or exactly what they are doing, but instead observes the unusual behaviour of certain markets. It can be FX, Read more…


Market Thinking September 2020

Global Equity Markets continued to squeeze higher in August, particularly in Tech space as momentum and quality strategies continued to run heavily while Value continued to take a hit – albeit bouncing towards the end of the month.* The Dollar Read more…


The importance of battleground states

Last week we discussed how the Biden/ Harris ticket is actually the establishment proposition, a kind of ‘Blue Pill’ offered to the American people so that they can pretend that the world that Donald Trump has revealed doesn’t really exist. Read more…


The UK economy isn’t (quite) as bad as you think

One of the big problems in this information age is the use of heuristics, or short cuts (a point made very eloquently by Daniel Kahneman in Thinking Fast and Slow) which can lead us to make decisions on what is Read more…