(Really) Won’t Work

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September 26, 2019
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A few days away meant a bit slow in the update on Won’t Work, but news that Adam Neuman has stepped down as CEO yesterday and that he had extracted over $700m in share sales and loans before the (now postponed) IPO just adds to this slow motion car crash of a story. In the meantime, I notice that Goldman Sachs are trying to offload some of their financial obligations to Softbank Vision Fund which of course is the main (only?) backer of We Work, by trying to sell on some of the $3.1bn liquidity financing deal they have. https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/garage/goldman-cutting-its-loan-exposure-to-softbank-vision-fund-sources

We Work itself has a lot of finance lines in place, but they are conditional on a successful IPO such that they are likely to be forced to return to the Softbank Vision Fund for more money. Given that the Vision Fund’s biggest backer is the Saudi Investment Fund and they are hardly having a good few weeks either at the moment, we could be looking at a very nasty liquidity crunch.

Perhaps not surprisingly Softbank’s CDS spreads have widened sharply and it’s share price has broken down. When the only buyer in town runs out of liquidity, the things they are buying need to reprice to the next realistic buyer. If they switch from buyer to seller, that gap can be very uncomfortable.

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The X Factor

This was not about Left versus Right, it was about a generational shift, from the Boomers to Gen X. This will then also move the children of the Boomers - the Millennials - down in favour of the next generation, the Zoomers of Gen Z. The economy and the markets will now shift in line with their traits and behaviours.

Pause, Rewind, Repay

The upcoming Election has been an excuse for markets to hit pause. Experience tells us that the best way to trade the 'reaction' is usually to fade it, as it will reflect pre-positioning around risk and that the initial sell-off or rally is not the start of a new directional trend. We suspect with Hedge Fund 'year end' coming up soon at Thanksgiving that traders will be flattening books, while asset allocators and lo0ng term investors, while perhaps putting some precautionary cash back in to existing trades, will wait for more clarity.

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