UBS Goes Bearish Equities…Too Early to Be Contrarian

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August 28, 2019
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This morning it was reported that UBS, the largest Wealth Manager in the world had turned bearish on stocks, trimming its core equity position to underweight. I would agree. As far as the US is concerned it has been flirting with a medium term and a long term risk off signal for most of the summer, while most other markets have been suggesting it has been better to sit in cash. With September coming it looks like the big guys will be sitting this one out for a while. It’s a little early to go contrarian yet.

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The X Factor

This was not about Left versus Right, it was about a generational shift, from the Boomers to Gen X. This will then also move the children of the Boomers - the Millennials - down in favour of the next generation, the Zoomers of Gen Z. The economy and the markets will now shift in line with their traits and behaviours.

Pause, Rewind, Repay

The upcoming Election has been an excuse for markets to hit pause. Experience tells us that the best way to trade the 'reaction' is usually to fade it, as it will reflect pre-positioning around risk and that the initial sell-off or rally is not the start of a new directional trend. We suspect with Hedge Fund 'year end' coming up soon at Thanksgiving that traders will be flattening books, while asset allocators and lo0ng term investors, while perhaps putting some precautionary cash back in to existing trades, will wait for more clarity.

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