Having initially decided the early August sell off was all about Economics, the pundits were forced to concede that it was actually market mechanics - in this case the partial unwind of the Yen carry trade, leading to a surge in Google searches for the term. We see this more as an unwind of the three big anomalies from the summer- concentration risk in US equities, repressed levels of volatility and an ultra cheap Yen. Traders are nevertheless nervous of past August analogues, particularly August 2000, when a similar small increase in Japanese rates burst the Dot Com bubble, but we also see echoes of August 1998, when the Russia default blew up LTCM and triggered a similar flight to safety in US bonds that was mis-interpreted as a signal of an upcoming recession. Indeed we see the latest calls for a recession and a Fed pivot driving US 10 Year below 4% as a new anomaly.