The timing of US tariffs on Chinese EVs and Solar panels is political, but they also signal a significant shift in the Global Economy as Globalisation rapidly unravels. The reality is that China's competitive advantage is actually in automation, network effects, an integrated supply chain and a huge home market, which means that pretending it is about cheap labour and subsidies achieves nothing other than punishing consumers. Europe in particular can't compete with China because its energy costs are too high thanks to US led tariffs on Russia and the madness of net zero policies and US pressure to match these new tariffs threatens to seriously unbalance the unity of the EU - already troubled by populist push back against the key Globalist policies of open borders and net zero. Perhaps most important though is that a US economy that has successfully cut its import dependency is one that has every incentive to talk down the $

This time last year we were honoured to be invited to 'pitch' at the Sohn Conference in Hong Kong. Team Tosca's pick, Italian Bank BPER, came in a solid second with a return of over 100%, making the case for the bank, but also the wider thematic of European Financials being winners under the new New Normal. We had the added 'benefit' that the whole sector was oversold on a macro/emotional basis in the wake of the Silicon valley Bank debacle last March and while that has now unwound, the positive stance on the sector remains intact.