Markets are asking the same question as bored children stuck in a long delay at Dover “Are we there yet?” The second half of July saw yet another bear market rally and while we are not sure we are ‘there’, this one does look the most convincing to date in terms of putting in some sort of market low.

The rally in the 10 year bond and the selloff in Commodity prices have been taken by many pundits as ‘Predictions’ of future economic activity, i.e a collapse in demand, a recession and a reduction in the threat of inflation....

Below is the latest article for Australia Financial Review, making two key points. First that moves in markets may lead rather than reflect Economic forecasts and thus we need to be careful of predictions based on market moves – especially commodities. Second, that official forecasts that drive policy are far worse than listening to markets and the apparent lack of understanding of how interest rates impact a household sector with a lot of floating rate mortgage debt or even the basics of how the oil market works are of far more concern.

A wise man once said that everything made sense when viewed through either the movies of the Godfather or the rules of English Cricket.

Governments have been trying to fix markets for over a decade but reality is now biting. This, in fact, is the real “Great Reset’. Free Markets are not about political systems but are those that are free of government interference and monopolistic rent seeking corporates, something those who claim to be free market economies have been embracing for too long.